Irtysh Pavlodar – FC Elimai Semey

Model: TIPPSA

Irtysh Pavlodar vs FC Elimai Semey

PREDICTION
2
@ 2.34
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffMag 16, 2026 6:00 PM
ResultLOSS2 - 2
StartStarted 56d ago
V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 3.31% · n=578
V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 56d 2h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is FC Elimai Semey. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: FC Elimai Semey

Shots Rating

H
A
Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Shots on Target

H
A
Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

40/100
Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds1.80First seen
Current2.16Now
Max odds2.21Highest point
Min odds1.80Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Irtysh PavlodarHOME
VS
FC Elimai SemeyAWAY
DLLLL
Recent form
DLLLD
Avg goals scored
0.60
1.00
Defensive weakness
1.40
1.60
Shots on target for
4.40
6.60
SoT conceded pressure
7.20
6.40
Home splitD-L-L-L-W1.00 scored / 1.40 conceded
Away splitD-L-L-D-W1.20 scored / 1.40 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 2.34. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 3.31% based on n=578 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Kazakhstan Premier League (kz). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick2
Odd2.34
V2 BandMEDIUMROI 3.31% · n=578
V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

The price and recent metrics both point to a relatively open contest. The confidence profile is moderate, so the pick has statistical support but should not be treated as a low-risk prediction. FC Elimai Semey is also generating more shots on target, adding offensive support to the pick.

Current Combo momentum is mixed. Recent results show alternating performance between short-term and medium-term windows.
3D: 5.8% 7D: 10.9% 15D: 2.2% 30D: -0.6%
Model insight

Irtysh Pavlodar – FC Elimai Semey Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 2.34. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSA model profile. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM, with a historical expected ROI of 3.31% across 578 similar predictions. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample153
Win Rate41.8%
Profit-3.11u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
WINCraigavon City (W) - Ballymoney United (W)2.343.43%
LOSSUnion La Calera - Universidad de Chile2.293.59%
WINChongqing Tonglianglong - Beijing Guoan2.523.43%
LOSSDeportes Recoleta - San Luis Quillota2.563.43%
LOSSIF Gnistan - SJK2.514.13%
LOSSLech Poznan UAM (W) - Rekord Bielsko-Biala (W)2.253.59%
LOSSChrobry Glogow - LKS Lodz2.192.63%
LOSSSC Kiryat Yam - Maccabi Petah Tikva2.253.43%
Pick
2 @ 2.34
Kickoff
Mag 16, 2026 6:00 PM
Confidence
CONF: MEDIUM
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 3.31% • n=578
Start
Started 56d ago
Updated
Updated 56d 2h ago
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