Island Bay United – Petone FC

Model: TIPPSH

Island Bay United vs Petone FC

PREDICTION
1
@ 2.68
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffMag 24, 2026 7:00 AM
ResultWIN2 - 0
StartStarted 48d 3h ago
V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 2.49% · n=1025
V4 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 2.49% · n=1025
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 48d 6h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Island Bay United. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Island Bay United

Shots Rating

H
A
Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Shots on Target

H
A
Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

41/100
Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds2.05First seen
Current2.68Now
Max odds2.68Highest point
Min odds2.05Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Island Bay UnitedHOME
VS
Petone FCAWAY
WLWWL
Recent form
LLLLL
Avg goals scored
2.60
0.40
Defensive weakness
1.80
2.60
Shots on target for
5.40
4.40
SoT conceded pressure
5.60
7.00
Home splitW-L-L0.67 scored / 2.67 conceded
Away splitL-L-L-L-D0.60 scored / 2.60 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 2.68. The V4 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 2.49% based on n=1025 historical similar picks. The match belongs to New Zealand Central League (nz). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick1
Odd2.68
V2 BandMEDIUMROI 2.49% · n=1025
V4 BandMEDIUMROI 2.49% · n=1025
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

While the odds remain elevated, the underlying metrics suggest the selection may be more competitive than the market implies. This sits in a middle confidence range, suggesting a balanced but not especially dominant setup. Island Bay United has produced stronger recent offensive pressure in terms of shots on target.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.
3D: 37.5% 7D: 38.2% 15D: 22.1% 30D: 9.5%
Model insight

Island Bay United – Petone FC Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 2.68. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show MEDIUM confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 2.49% and 2.49%. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Active Similar Predictions
MatchPickOddExp. ROIKickoff
Fredrikstad - Lillestrom12.892.04%11 Jul 14:00
EPS - P-Iirot12.473.15%11 Jul 16:00
Pick
1 @ 2.68
Kickoff
Mag 24, 2026 7:00 AM
Confidence
CONF: MEDIUM
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 2.49% • n=1025
Confidence V4
Exp. ROI V4
2.49% • n=1025
Start
Started 48d 3h ago
Updated
Updated 48d 6h ago
Torna in alto