Model: TIPPSH

Fredrikstad vs Lillestrom

PREDICTION

@ 2.89

StatusUpcoming

KickoffLug 11, 2026 4:00 PM

ResultPending

StartStarts in 3d 14h

V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 2.04% · n=113

V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 6m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Fredrikstad. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Fredrikstad

Shots Rating

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

41/100

Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds2.86First seen

Current2.89Now

Max odds2.89Highest point

Min odds2.86Lowest point

VolatilityLowStable range

TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

FredrikstadHOME

LillestromAWAY

LDDWD

Recent form

WLLLL

Avg goals scored

1.00

1.20

Defensive weakness

1.20

1.80

Shots on target for

4.40

3.60

SoT conceded pressure

3.60

6.40

Home splitD-D-W-W-L1.20 scored / 1.00 conceded

Away splitL-L-L-W-D0.40 scored / 1.00 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 2.89. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 2.04% based on n=113 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Norway Eliteserien (no). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with Low volatility.

Pick1

Odd2.89

V2 BandMEDIUMROI 2.04% · n=113

V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0

Odds TrendRising

VolatilityLow

AI Match Insight

The market offers a relatively high price, but recent statistical trends still provide meaningful support for Fredrikstad. The model gives this selection a reasonable profile, although the confidence level remains measured.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.

3D: -36.8% 7D: 13.3% 15D: 23.3% 30D: 14.0%

Model insight

Fredrikstad – Lillestrom Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 2.89. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM, with a historical expected ROI of 2.04% across 113 similar predictions. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Market movement remained relatively stable before kickoff, suggesting balanced sentiment around the initial model projection. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample21

Win Rate42.9%

Profit+4.42u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
WIN	San Diego Wave (W) - NJ/NY Gotham FC (W)	2.89	4.53%
LOSS	Las Vegas Lights FC - El Paso Locomotive FC	2.84	4.53%
LOSS	Vikingur Gota - NSI Runavik	2.76	2.04%
WIN	Delaware FC - Real Central NJ	2.80	4.53%
LOSS	FC Struga Trim & Lum - FC Dinamo City	2.99	4.53%
LOSS	Eastern Suburbs Auckland - Birkenhead United	2.79	4.53%
LOSS	Renaissance Zemamra - OC Safi	2.85	4.53%
WIN	Atlantis FC/PM - Tips Vantaa	2.98	4.53%

Pick

1 @ 2.89

Kickoff

Lug 11, 2026 4:00 PM

Confidence

CONF: MEDIUM

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 2.04% • n=113

Start

Starts in 3d 14h

Updated

Updated 6m ago