Model: TIPPSH
Lokomotiv Plovdiv – Arda Kardzhali
PREDICTION
1
@ 2.90
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffApr 30, 2026 8:00 PM
ResultLOSS1 - 1
StartStarted 26d 5h ago
V2 ConfidenceNONEExpected ROI -3.20% · n=29
V4 ConfidenceNONEExpected ROI -3.20% · n=29
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 28d ago
Team Form & Goal Trends
Recent form based on completed matches before kickoff.
| Metric | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | Arda Kardzhali |
|---|---|---|
| Last 5 form | D-L-W-D-D | D-L-L-W-L |
| Avg goals scored | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| Avg goals conceded | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| Home/Away form | D-L-W (home) | D-L (away) |
| Home/Away avg goals | 0.67 scored / 0.67 conceded | 0.50 scored / 1.00 conceded |
| Shots on target | 4.20 for / 3.60 against | 3.00 for / 5.20 against |
| Home/Away shots on target | 3.50 for / 3.50 against (home) | 0.00 for / 4.00 against (away) |
AI Match Insight
While the odds remain elevated, the underlying metrics suggest the selection may be more competitive than the market implies. This selection carries a lower-confidence signal, so the risk profile remains elevated. Lokomotiv Plovdiv has produced stronger recent offensive pressure in terms of shots on target.
Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds2.53First seen
Current2.90Now
Max odds3.10Highest point
Min odds2.52Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term
Model insight
Lokomotiv Plovdiv – Arda Kardzhali Betting Analysis
The model currently selects 1 at odds 2.90. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show NONE confidence, with historical expected ROI values of -3.20% and -3.20%. Historical performance for this profile has been negative or unstable, so this signal should be treated with additional caution. The available sample size is still relatively limited, which may increase performance variability. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample29
Win Rate31.0%
Profit-2.69u
Historical Similar Predictions
| Result | Match | Odd | Exp. ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| LOSS | HERA United (W) - FC Utrecht (W) | 2.80 | -1.00% |
| LOSS | Shimizu S-Pulse - Gamba Osaka | 2.89 | -2.37% |
| LOSS | Aris Limassol - AEK Larnaca | 2.98 | -3.20% |
| WIN | Loveledge Nagoya (W) - Shizuoka SSU Asregina (W) | 3.10 | -3.20% |
| WIN | Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic - Meizhou Hakka | 3.10 | -3.20% |
| WIN | St. Louis City SC - Los Angeles FC | 2.76 | -3.20% |
| LOSS | Lechia Gdansk - Legia Warsaw | 2.94 | -3.20% |
| WIN | Ceara - Atletico Mineiro | 2.96 | -3.20% |
Pick
1 @ 2.90
Kickoff
Apr 30, 2026 8:00 PM
Confidence
CONF: NONE
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI -3.20% • n=29
Confidence V4
Exp. ROI V4
-3.20% • n=29
Start
Started 26d 5h ago
Updated
Updated 28d ago