Model: TIPPSH

Aris Limassol vs AEK Larnaca

PREDICTION

@ 2.20

StatusArchived prediction

KickoffMag 22, 2026 6:30 PM

ResultLOSS3 - 4

StartStarted 49d 20h ago

V2 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.31% · n=2537

V4 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.31% · n=2537

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 49d 22h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Aris Limassol. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Aris Limassol

Shots Rating

Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Shots on Target

Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

32/100

Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds3.10First seen

Current2.33Now

Max odds3.10Highest point

Min odds2.32Lowest point

VolatilityHighStable range

TrendDroppingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Aris LimassolHOME

AEK LarnacaAWAY

LLLWL

Recent form

WDDWL

Avg goals scored

1.20

1.60

Defensive weakness

2.40

1.40

Shots on target for

6.60

5.00

SoT conceded pressure

5.60

4.80

Home splitL-W-W-D2.00 scored / 1.25 conceded

Away splitW-D-L-D-D1.40 scored / 1.40 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 2.20. The V4 confidence band is LOW with an expected ROI of 1.31% based on n=2537 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Cyprus Division 1 (cy). Odds movement is currently classified as Dropping with High volatility.

Pick1

Odd2.20

V2 BandLOWROI 1.31% · n=2537

V4 BandLOWROI 1.31% · n=2537

Odds TrendDropping

VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

The matchup looks relatively balanced, so the value of the pick depends more on the model profile than on a clear form advantage. The model does not assign a strong confidence profile here, making the pick more speculative. Aris Limassol has produced stronger recent offensive pressure in terms of shots on target.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.

3D: 22.9% 7D: 21.6% 15D: 8.9% 30D: 0.8%

Model insight

Aris Limassol – AEK Larnaca Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 2.20. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show LOW confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 1.31% and 1.31%. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The prediction received strong market support after the first appearance. Early prices historically produced the best long-term performance for this model profile. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample237

Win Rate47.3%

Profit+2.18u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
WIN	Argentino Merlo - Argentino Quilmes	2.10	1.04%
LOSS	Vikingur Reykjavik (W) - IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W)	1.97	1.04%
WIN	Nublense - O'Higgins	2.39	1.41%
WIN	Warta Sieradz - LKS Lodz II	2.05	1.04%
WIN	Slovacko - FC Zorya Lugansk	1.96	1.31%
LOSS	Deportivo Maldonado - Albion FC	2.10	1.04%
LOSS	Cheonan City - Gimhae FC 2008	2.19	1.31%
WIN	Belconnen United U23 - Canberra Juventus U23	2.25	1.59%

Active Similar Predictions

Match	Pick	Odd	Exp. ROI	Kickoff
Santiago Wanderers - Union Espanola	1	2.17	1.04%	30 May 18:30
Velez Sarsfield Reserves - Racing Club Reserves	1	1.99	1.31%	05 Jul 16:00
Boca Juniors Reserves - River Plate Reserves	1	2.40	1.59%	05 Jul 19:00
Gimcheon Sangmu FC - Bucheon	1	2.06	1.04%	11 Jul 12:30
Deportivo Moron - Deportivo Madryn	1	1.95	1.04%	11 Jul 20:00
Los Angeles FC II - Portland Timbers II	1	2.07	1.04%	12 Jul 04:00
Barra FC - Santa Cruz FC	1	2.28	1.59%	12 Jul 16:00
GAIS - Elfsborg	1	1.95	1.04%	12 Jul 16:30

Pick

1 @ 2.20

Kickoff

Mag 22, 2026 6:30 PM

Confidence

CONF: LOW

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 1.31% • n=2537

Confidence V4

CONF V4: LOW

Exp. ROI V4

1.31% • n=2537

Start

Started 49d 20h ago

Updated

Updated 49d 22h ago