Model: TIPPSA

Macarthur FC vs Wellington Phoenix

PREDICTION

@ 3.10

StatusArchived prediction

KickoffApr 24, 2026 1:35 PM

ResultLOSS4 - 0

StartStarted 88d 1h ago

V2 ConfidenceNONEExpected ROI -0.51% · n=382

V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 88d 8h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Wellington Phoenix. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Wellington PhoenixGoal/Shots Index — H: — | A: —

Shots Rating

Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Shots on Target

Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

34/100

Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds3.50First seen

Current3.40Now

Max odds3.50Highest point

Min odds3.33Lowest point

VolatilityMediumStable range

TrendDroppingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Macarthur FCHOME

Wellington PhoenixAWAY

WLLW

Recent form

LWLW

Avg goals scored

2.25

0.75

Defensive weakness

2.00

1.75

Shots on target for

5.25

2.75

SoT conceded pressure

6.25

5.75

Home splitW-W3.50 scored / 1.00 conceded

Away splitL-L-W0.33 scored / 2.00 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 3.10. The V2 confidence band is NONE with an expected ROI of -0.51% based on n=382 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Australia A-League (au). Odds movement is currently classified as Dropping with Medium volatility.

Pick2

Odd3.10

V2 BandNONEROI -0.51% · n=382

V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0

Odds TrendDropping

VolatilityMedium

AI Match Insight

From a statistical perspective, the difference between the two teams may be smaller than the current price indicates. This selection carries a lower-confidence signal, so the risk profile remains elevated.

Current Combo momentum is mixed. Recent results show alternating performance between short-term and medium-term windows.

3D: 6.8% 7D: -0.5% 15D: 13.9% 30D: 14.7%

Model insight

Macarthur FC – Wellington Phoenix Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 3.10. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSA model profile. The V2 confidence band is NONE, with a historical expected ROI of -0.51% across 382 similar predictions. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Market movement remained relatively stable before kickoff, suggesting balanced sentiment around the initial model projection. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample57

Win Rate35.1%

Profit+3.96u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
WIN	KuPS (W) - Aland United (W)	3.00	-1.07%
WIN	Anapolis FC - Botafogo PB	3.10	-1.07%
WIN	FC Haka - KTP	2.97	-1.07%
LOSS	Valur Reykjavik - Keflavik	2.93	-1.07%
LOSS	Avai - Cuiaba	3.20	-1.07%
WIN	Sao Bernardo SP - EC Juventude	3.22	-1.07%
LOSS	Belgrano (W) - CA Talleres de Cordoba (W)	3.02	-1.07%
LOSS	Blacktown Spartans U20 - Bankstown City Lions U20	2.94	-1.07%

Pick

2 @ 3.10

Kickoff

Apr 24, 2026 1:35 PM

Confidence

CONF: NONE

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI -0.51% • n=382

Start

Started 88d 1h ago

Updated

Updated 88d 8h ago