Model: TIPPSA
Madura United – Bali United
PREDICTION
2
@ 2.82
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffMag 05, 2026 12:30 PM
ResultLOSS2 - 0
StartStarted 21d 15h ago
V2 ConfidenceHIGHExpected ROI 5.70% · n=134
V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 22d ago
Team Form & Goal Trends
Recent form based on completed matches before kickoff.
| Metric | Madura United | Bali United |
|---|---|---|
| Last 5 form | W-W-L-W-W | L-W-W-W-L |
| Avg goals scored | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| Avg goals conceded | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| Home/Away form | W-L-W-L (home) | L-W-L (away) |
| Home/Away avg goals | 1.50 scored / 1.50 conceded | 1.00 scored / 1.67 conceded |
| Shots on target | 3.20 for / 3.80 against | 3.80 for / 3.40 against |
| Home/Away shots on target | 3.75 for / 4.50 against (home) | 1.33 for / 1.67 against (away) |
AI Match Insight
The elevated odds reflect a naturally higher-risk profile, especially because recent form does not clearly favor Bali United. Historical model performance remains supportive, with similar HIGH underdog setups showing encouraging long-term results.
Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds2.41First seen
Current2.82Now
Max odds2.82Highest point
Min odds2.34Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term
Model insight
Madura United – Bali United Betting Analysis
The model currently selects 2 at odds 2.82. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSA model profile. The V2 confidence band is HIGH, with a historical expected ROI of 5.70% across 134 similar predictions. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample25
Win Rate44.0%
Profit+6.63u
Historical Similar Predictions
| Result | Match | Odd | Exp. ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| LOSS | FC Kitzbuhel - Hohenems | 2.82 | 7.70% |
| WIN | Maccabi Panthers Ashdod (W) - FC Ramat Hasharon (W) | 2.83 | 7.70% |
| LOSS | Deportivo Moquegua - AD Tarma | 2.94 | 6.31% |
| LOSS | Bayer Leverkusen - RB Leipzig | 3.00 | 6.31% |
| WIN | Aubagne Air Bel - Stade Briochin | 2.76 | 5.70% |
| LOSS | Nantes (W) - Lyon (W) | 3.01 | 6.31% |
| WIN | Strasbourg (W) - Le Havre (W) | 3.02 | 5.70% |
| LOSS | Bronshoj BK - Horsholm-Usserod IK | 2.79 | 6.31% |
Pick
2 @ 2.82
Kickoff
Mag 05, 2026 12:30 PM
Confidence
CONF: HIGH
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 5.70% • n=134
Start
Started 21d 15h ago
Updated
Updated 22d ago