Moggill – Newmarket

Model: TIPPSA

Moggill vs Newmarket

PREDICTION
2
@ 2.29
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffAgo 16, 2026 12:00 PM
ResultWIN0 - 1
StartStarted 12h 43m ago
V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 4.13% · n=261
V4 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 4.13% · n=261
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 15h 7m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Newmarket. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: NewmarketGoal/Shots Index — H: — | A: 0.115

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Away edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Away edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

42/100
Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds1.84First seen
Current2.30Now
Max odds2.33Highest point
Min odds1.84Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

MoggillHOME
VS
NewmarketAWAY
LWDDW
Recent form
WDWWW
Avg goals scored
2.20
3.60
Defensive weakness
1.60
0.60
Shots on target for
4.20
10.20
SoT conceded pressure
3.00
3.40
Home splitL-D-W-W-W2.00 scored / 0.80 conceded
Away splitW-W-W-D-D4.00 scored / 1.20 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 2.29. The V4 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 4.13% based on n=261 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Australia Queensland Premier League 3 (au). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick2
Odd2.29
V2 BandMEDIUMROI 4.13% · n=261
V4 BandMEDIUMROI 4.13% · n=261
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

The price is not extreme, and recent results provide a reasonable statistical basis for the pick. There is some statistical support behind the pick, but the historical signal is not strong enough to be aggressive. Newmarket is also generating more shots on target, adding offensive support to the pick.

Current Combo momentum is mixed. Recent results show alternating performance between short-term and medium-term windows.
3D: -17.5% 7D: -17.7% 15D: 0.7% 30D: 4.5%
Model insight

Moggill – Newmarket Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 2.29. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSA model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show MEDIUM confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 4.13% and 4.13%. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample174
Win Rate42.0%
Profit-5.80u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
WINSportivo Trinidense (W) - Sportivo San Lorenzo (W)2.544.13%
WINHB Køge - Hvidovre IF2.082.63%
WINFC Utrecht - AZ2.473.59%
WINWuxi Wugo - Guangdong GZ-Power2.072.63%
LOSSArkonia Szczecin U19 - Gornik Zabrze U192.394.13%
WINSV Ried - Rapid Vienna2.404.13%
WINHuachipato - Everton de Vina2.294.13%
LOSSPSG - Man Utd2.082.63%
Pick
2 @ 2.29
Kickoff
Ago 16, 2026 12:00 PM
Confidence
CONF: MEDIUM
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 4.13% • n=261
Confidence V4
Exp. ROI V4
4.13% • n=261
Start
Started 12h 43m ago
Updated
Updated 15h 7m ago
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