Montevideo Wanderers Reserves – Penarol Reserves

Model: TIPPSA

Montevideo Wanderers Reserves vs Penarol Reserves

PREDICTION
2
@ 2.63
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffGiu 22, 2026 10:00 PM
ResultLOSS1 - 1
StartStarted 49d 11h ago
V2 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 0.84% · n=717
V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 49d 14h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Penarol Reserves. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Penarol ReservesGoal/Shots Index — H: — | A: —

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Away edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Away edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

34/100
Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds3.55First seen
Current2.75Now
Max odds3.55Highest point
Min odds2.75Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendDroppingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Montevideo Wanderers ReservesHOME
VS
Penarol ReservesAWAY
DWWLW
Recent form
DWWWW
Avg goals scored
2.00
1.60
Defensive weakness
1.00
0.40
Shots on target for
4.20
4.80
SoT conceded pressure
5.20
2.20
Home splitD-W-W-W-W2.60 scored / 0.80 conceded
Away splitD-W-L-W1.50 scored / 1.00 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 2.63. The V2 confidence band is LOW with an expected ROI of 0.84% based on n=717 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Uruguay Reserve League (uy). Odds movement is currently classified as Dropping with High volatility.

Pick2
Odd2.63
V2 BandLOWROI 0.84% · n=717
V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0
Odds TrendDropping
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

Although the odds are relatively high, Penarol Reserves shows enough recent performance support to make the pick interesting from a risk/reward perspective. This selection carries a lower-confidence signal, so the risk profile remains elevated.

Current Combo momentum is positive. Recent Combo selections remain profitable across multiple recent windows, indicating stable short-term performance.
3D: -30.0% 7D: 4.7% 15D: 2.8% 30D: 1.8%
Model insight

Montevideo Wanderers Reserves – Penarol Reserves Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 2.63. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSA model profile. The V2 confidence band is LOW, with a historical expected ROI of 0.84% across 717 similar predictions. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The prediction received strong market support after the first appearance. Early prices historically produced the best long-term performance for this model profile. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample46
Win Rate39.1%
Profit-0.32u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
LOSSFC Brno II - Frydek Mistek2.420.84%
WINChattanooga Red Wolves - Union Omaha2.580.84%
LOSSDundee - Aberdeen2.610.84%
WINYeoju - Dangjin Citizen FC2.490.84%
WINAudax Italiano - Universidad de Chile2.410.84%
LOSSMFK Ruzomberok - Dunajska Streda2.400.84%
WINNorth Carolina Courage (W) - Utah Royals (W)2.710.84%
LOSSJeonnam Dragons - Gyeongnam FC2.660.84%
Pick
2 @ 2.63
Kickoff
Giu 22, 2026 10:00 PM
Confidence
CONF: LOW
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 0.84% • n=717
Start
Started 49d 11h ago
Updated
Updated 49d 14h ago
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