Nacional Asuncion – Libertad Asuncion

Model: TIPPSA

Nacional Asuncion vs Libertad Asuncion

PREDICTION
2
@ 2.56
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffSet 02, 2026 11:00 PM
ResultLOSS3 - 0
StartStarted 1d ago
V2 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 0.84% · n=717
V4 ConfidenceNONEExpected ROI -2.09% · n=286
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 1d 2h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Libertad Asuncion. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Libertad AsuncionGoal/Shots Index — H: 0.189 | A: 0.000

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Away edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Away edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

23/100
Poor value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds2.86First seen
Current2.56Now
Max odds2.93Highest point
Min odds2.55Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendDroppingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Nacional AsuncionHOME
VS
Libertad AsuncionAWAY
WWWWD
Recent form
LDWDW
Avg goals scored
2.20
0.80
Defensive weakness
0.20
1.00
Shots on target for
5.00
5.20
SoT conceded pressure
3.80
3.20
Home splitW-W-D-W-W1.80 scored / 0.20 conceded
Away splitL-D-W-L-W1.00 scored / 1.40 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 2.56. The V4 confidence band is NONE with an expected ROI of -2.09% based on n=286 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Paraguay Division Profesional (py). Odds movement is currently classified as Dropping with High volatility.

Pick2
Odd2.56
V2 BandLOWROI 0.84% · n=717
V4 BandNONEROI -2.09% · n=286
Odds TrendDropping
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

Recent performances only partially support the selection, which helps explain the higher market price. If considered, this pick should be approached with caution due to the limited historical confidence.

Current Combo momentum is mixed. Recent results show alternating performance between short-term and medium-term windows.
3D: 0.8% 7D: -8.8% 15D: 12.2% 30D: 5.3%
Model insight

Nacional Asuncion – Libertad Asuncion Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 2.56. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSA model profile. The V2 confidence band is LOW, with a historical expected ROI of 0.84% across 717 similar predictions. The V4 confidence band is NONE, with a historical expected ROI of -2.09% across 286 historical samples. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The prediction received strong market support after the first appearance. Early prices historically produced the best long-term performance for this model profile. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample86
Win Rate40.7%
Profit+1.60u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
WINSportivo Ameliano - Sportivo Trinidense2.590.84%
WINVanraure Hachinohe - Tochigi City2.330.84%
LOSSFleetwood Town - Oldham2.660.84%
LOSSHapoel Afula - Hapoel Raanana2.630.84%
LOSSRapid Bucuresti - CS U Craiova2.550.84%
LOSSDerby U21 - West Brom U212.470.84%
LOSSValur Reykjavik - IA Akranes2.470.84%
LOSSRadomiak Radom - Cracovia Krakow2.340.84%
Pick
2 @ 2.56
Kickoff
Set 02, 2026 11:00 PM
Confidence
CONF: LOW
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 0.84% • n=717
Confidence V4
Exp. ROI V4
-2.09% • n=286
Start
Started 1d ago
Updated
Updated 1d 2h ago
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