Model: TIPPSH

Neftchi Fergana vs Navbahor Namangan

PREDICTION

@ 1.83

StatusUpcoming

KickoffLug 28, 2026 7:00 PM

ResultPending

StartStarts in 1d 3h

V2 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.31% · n=2537

V4 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.31% · n=2537

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 10m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Neftchi Fergana. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Neftchi FerganaGoal/Shots Index — H: 0.141 | A: -0.085

Shots Rating

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

27/100

Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds1.58First seen

Current1.83Now

Max odds1.83Highest point

Min odds1.58Lowest point

VolatilityHighStable range

TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Neftchi FerganaHOME

Navbahor NamanganAWAY

WWLWW

Recent form

DLDDD

Avg goals scored

4.00

1.00

Defensive weakness

1.80

1.20

Shots on target for

8.60

5.80

SoT conceded pressure

2.80

3.00

Home splitW-W-W-W-W4.00 scored / 1.00 conceded

Away splitD-D-D-L-W1.00 scored / 0.80 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 1.83. The V4 confidence band is LOW with an expected ROI of 1.31% based on n=2537 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Uzbekistan PFL (uz). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick1

Odd1.83

V2 BandLOWROI 1.31% · n=2537

V4 BandLOWROI 1.31% · n=2537

Odds TrendRising

VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

This looks like a competitive matchup, although the form profile gives the selected side some support. Confidence remains limited, so this should be read as a cautious lean rather than a strong prediction. Shot-on-target data gives additional support to Neftchi Fergana's attacking profile.

Current Combo momentum is mixed. Recent results show alternating performance between short-term and medium-term windows.

3D: -4.3% 7D: -2.8% 15D: 12.8% 30D: 17.4%

Model insight

Neftchi Fergana – Navbahor Namangan Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 1.83. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show LOW confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 1.31% and 1.31%. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample342

Win Rate46.5%

Profit-38.48u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
LOSS	Police AC - Aryan FC	1.90	1.04%
LOSS	Cruzeiro - Botafogo	1.80	1.04%
WIN	Fuerte San Francisco Reserves - CD Platense Zacatecoluca Reserves	2.01	1.31%
LOSS	CD Aguila Reserves - CD Luis Angel Firpo Reserves	1.99	1.04%
WIN	Eintracht Frankfurt - Trabzonspor	2.00	1.04%
LOSS	Szombathelyi Mav Haladas VSE - SC Sopron	1.89	1.04%
WIN	Karonga United - Creck SC	1.88	1.04%
WIN	Ujpest II - BKV Elore SC	1.83	1.04%

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Pittsburgh Riverhounds - Tulsa	1	1.92	1.04%	30 Jul 01:00
Corinthians - Athletico Paranaense	1	1.98	1.04%	31 Jul 00:30
CD Los Chankas - Comerciantes Unidos	1	1.83	1.04%	31 Jul 22:00

Pick

1 @ 1.83

Kickoff

Lug 28, 2026 7:00 PM

Confidence

CONF: LOW

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 1.31% • n=2537

Confidence V4

CONF V4: LOW

Exp. ROI V4

1.31% • n=2537

Start

Starts in 1d 3h

Updated

Updated 10m ago