Model: TipA1
Nepean FC – Sydney University
PREDICTION
2
@ 2.50
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffApr 24, 2026 2:00 PM
ResultWIN0 - 1
StartStarted 32d 12h ago
V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 4.39% · n=969
V4 ConfidenceHIGHExpected ROI 5.57% · n=364
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 33d 2h ago
Team Form & Goal Trends
Recent form based on completed matches before kickoff.
| Metric | Nepean FC | Sydney University |
|---|---|---|
| Last 5 form | L-L-D-L | W-W-L-W |
| Avg goals scored | 0.75 | 1.75 |
| Avg goals conceded | 2.50 | 1.00 |
| Home/Away form | L-D (home) | W-L (away) |
| Home/Away avg goals | 1.00 scored / 1.50 conceded | 1.50 scored / 1.50 conceded |
| Shots on target | 3.00 for / 8.33 against | 1.75 for / 1.50 against |
| Home/Away shots on target | 6.00 for / 7.00 against (home) | 3.50 for / 3.00 against (away) |
AI Match Insight
Despite entering the match at a generous price, Sydney University has produced enough positive indicators to justify attention. The confidence profile is moderate, so the pick has statistical support but should not be treated as a low-risk prediction.
Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds2.20First seen
Current2.50Now
Max odds2.50Highest point
Min odds2.20Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term
Model insight
Nepean FC – Sydney University Betting Analysis
The model currently selects 2 at odds 2.50. This prediction is generated by the TipA1 model profile. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM, with a historical expected ROI of 4.39% across 969 similar predictions. The V4 confidence band is HIGH, with a historical expected ROI of 5.57% across 364 historical samples. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample135
Win Rate38.5%
Profit-7.88u
Historical Similar Predictions
| Result | Match | Odd | Exp. ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| WIN | Sao Cristovao U20 - AA Carapebus U20 | 2.25 | 4.27% |
| LOSS | Almirante Brown Reserves - CA San Miguel Reserves | 2.25 | 4.27% |
| LOSS | HK/Ymir Kopavogur U19 - Thor/THK/Volsungur U19 | 2.40 | 4.27% |
| LOSS | KS Sniadowo - Supraslanka Suprasl | 2.35 | 4.27% |
| WIN | Muang Loei United - Uttaradit FC | 2.25 | 4.27% |
| WIN | SV Estrella - SV River Plate | 2.70 | 4.27% |
| LOSS | Independencia - Galvez AC | 2.50 | 4.27% |
| WIN | Sportivo Luqueno - Olimpia Asuncion | 2.35 | 4.27% |
Active Similar Predictions
| Match | Pick | Odd | Exp. ROI | Kickoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mjällby AIF - Djurgarden | 2 | 2.70 | 4.27% | 31 May 16:30 |
Pick
2 @ 2.50
Kickoff
Apr 24, 2026 2:00 PM
Confidence
CONF: MEDIUM
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 4.39% • n=969
Confidence V4
Exp. ROI V4
5.57% • n=364
Start
Started 32d 12h ago
Updated
Updated 33d 2h ago