Newmarket vs Moggill
📊 Match Analysis
Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.
Game Context
The model side is Moggill. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.
Edge: MoggillValue Index
Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.
Odds Movement
📊 Team Form (Last 5)
Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.
Quick Analysis
The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 2.60. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 4.27% based on n=1151 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Australia Queensland Premier League 3 (au). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with Low volatility.
AI Match Insight
The selection carries significant risk according to both market expectations and recent form indicators. The model gives this selection a reasonable profile, although the confidence level remains measured. Moggill is also generating more shots on target, adding offensive support to the pick.
Newmarket – Moggill Betting Analysis
| Result | Match | Odd | Exp. ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| LOSS | ABB U19 - CDT Real Oruro U19 | 2.63 | 4.27% |
| LOSS | Marcilio Dias - Portuguesa Desportos | 2.45 | 4.27% |
| LOSS | HPS - Reipas | 2.50 | 4.27% |
| WIN | Odd BK - Haugesund | 2.70 | 4.27% |
| LOSS | SC Kalsdorf - FC Marchfeld Donauauen | 2.60 | 4.27% |
| WIN | Gold Coast Knights U23 - Moreton City Excelsior U23 | 2.50 | 4.27% |
| LOSS | Modbury Vista Reserves (W) - Salisbury Inter Reserves (W) | 2.50 | 4.27% |
| LOSS | Defensores Unidos - Argentino Merlo | 2.38 | 4.27% |
| Match | Pick | Odd | Exp. ROI | Kickoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CFD La Nororiental - Molino Viejo | 2 | 2.45 | 4.27% | 12 Jul 19:00 |