Model: TIPPSH

NK Croatia Zmijavci vs NK Jarun

PREDICTION

@ 1.89

StatusArchived prediction

KickoffMag 10, 2026 7:00 PM

ResultLOSS1 - 2

StartStarted 80d 19h ago

V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 4.31% · n=212

V4 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 4.31% · n=212

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 81d 8h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is NK Croatia Zmijavci. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: NK Croatia ZmijavciGoal/Shots Index — H: — | A: —

Shots Rating

Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Shots on Target

Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

38/100

Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds1.70First seen

Current1.89Now

Max odds1.94Highest point

Min odds1.70Lowest point

VolatilityHighStable range

TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

NK Croatia ZmijavciHOME

NK JarunAWAY

LWLDD

Recent form

WLLLW

Avg goals scored

0.80

1.00

Defensive weakness

1.20

Shots on target for

5.40

2.60

SoT conceded pressure

2.60

6.00

Home splitL-L-D0.67 scored / 1.67 conceded

Away splitW-L-L-L0.50 scored / 1.25 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 1.89. The V4 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 4.31% based on n=212 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Croatia 1.NL (hr). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick1

Odd1.89

V2 BandMEDIUMROI 4.31% · n=212

V4 BandMEDIUMROI 4.31% · n=212

Odds TrendRising

VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

The matchup looks relatively balanced, so the value of the pick depends more on the model profile than on a clear form advantage. There is some statistical support behind the pick, but the historical signal is not strong enough to be aggressive. Shot-on-target data gives additional support to NK Croatia Zmijavci's attacking profile.

Current Combo momentum is weak. Recent short-term performance has been below expectations, suggesting that current match conditions may be less favorable for the model.

3D: 0.4% 7D: -8.3% 15D: -5.8% 30D: 1.2%

Model insight

NK Croatia Zmijavci – NK Jarun Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 1.89. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show MEDIUM confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 4.31% and 4.31%. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample315

Win Rate51.1%

Profit-4.63u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
LOSS	Feyenoord - Rayo Vallecano	2.08	3.37%
WIN	Ajax - Burnley	2.04	3.37%
WIN	CD Universidad San Martin - Carlos Manucci	2.10	3.37%
WIN	Ponte Preta U20 - Uniao Suzano AC U20	1.81	3.37%
WIN	Queen's Park - Queen of South	2.01	3.37%
WIN	Ljungskile - Sandvikens IF	1.94	3.37%
LOSS	Phoenix Rising FC - Hartford Athletic	2.09	3.37%
WIN	CS Corvinul Hunedoara - FK Csikszereda Miercurea Ciuc	2.05	3.37%

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Pick

1 @ 1.89

Kickoff

Mag 10, 2026 7:00 PM

Confidence

CONF: MEDIUM

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 4.31% • n=212

Confidence V4

CONF V4: MEDIUM

Exp. ROI V4

4.31% • n=212

Start

Started 80d 19h ago

Updated

Updated 81d 8h ago