Nomads United – Nelson Suburbs

Model: TIPPSH

Nomads United vs Nelson Suburbs

PREDICTION
1
@ 2.30
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffGiu 14, 2026 3:00 AM
ResultLOSS0 - 2
StartStarted 55d ago
V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 2.49% · n=1025
V4 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 2.49% · n=1025
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 55d 3h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Nomads United. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Nomads UnitedGoal/Shots Index — H: — | A: —

Shots Rating

H
A
Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Shots on Target

H
A
Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

37/100
Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds1.91First seen
Current2.30Now
Max odds2.30Highest point
Min odds1.91Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Nomads UnitedHOME
VS
Nelson SuburbsAWAY
LWWWD
Recent form
WWLWL
Avg goals scored
1.40
2.60
Defensive weakness
0.60
2.20
Shots on target for
6.80
5.20
SoT conceded pressure
3.60
6.40
Home splitL-W-D-D-W1.40 scored / 1.20 conceded
Away splitW-W-W-L-L2.20 scored / 2.40 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 2.30. The V4 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 2.49% based on n=1025 historical similar picks. The match belongs to New Zealand Cup (nz). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick1
Odd2.30
V2 BandMEDIUMROI 2.49% · n=1025
V4 BandMEDIUMROI 2.49% · n=1025
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

The price and recent metrics both point to a relatively open contest. This sits in a middle confidence range, suggesting a balanced but not especially dominant setup. Shot-on-target data gives additional support to Nomads United's attacking profile.

Current Combo momentum is mixed. Recent results show alternating performance between short-term and medium-term windows.
3D: -14.1% 7D: 7.4% 15D: -6.1% 30D: 11.3%
Model insight

Nomads United – Nelson Suburbs Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 2.30. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show MEDIUM confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 2.49% and 2.49%. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample196
Win Rate42.9%
Profit-6.55u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
LOSSAdelaide Comets (W) - Salisbury Inter (W)2.363.15%
LOSSVitesse - RKC2.352.49%
WINAfan Lido - Llantwit Major2.402.49%
WINEstrella del Sur Reserves - CA Lugano Reserves2.422.49%
LOSSRespublika FA - Gazalkent2.322.49%
LOSSACS UTA Batrana Doamna - Rapid Bucuresti2.552.49%
WINGold Coast Knights (W) - Brisbane City (W)2.203.37%
WINAlianza Atletico - Cienciano2.352.49%
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Pick
1 @ 2.30
Kickoff
Giu 14, 2026 3:00 AM
Confidence
CONF: MEDIUM
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 2.49% • n=1025
Confidence V4
Exp. ROI V4
2.49% • n=1025
Start
Started 55d ago
Updated
Updated 55d 3h ago
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