Model: TipA1

O'Connor Knights vs Tuggeranong Utd

PREDICTION

@ 2.25

StatusArchived prediction

KickoffGiu 13, 2026 9:00 AM

ResultWIN2 - 3

StartStarted 55d 2h ago

V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 4.27% · n=1151

V4 ConfidenceHIGHExpected ROI 6.85% · n=441

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 57d 6h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Tuggeranong Utd. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Tuggeranong UtdGoal/Shots Index — H: — | A: —

Shots Rating

Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Shots on Target

Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

52/100

Good value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds2.06First seen

Current2.25Now

Max odds2.25Highest point

Min odds2.06Lowest point

VolatilityHighStable range

TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

O'Connor KnightsHOME

Tuggeranong UtdAWAY

LLLWL

Recent form

WLWLW

Avg goals scored

1.00

2.40

Defensive weakness

2.60

3.00

Shots on target for

4.40

8.20

SoT conceded pressure

8.20

10.20

Home splitL-L-L-L-W1.00 scored / 2.80 conceded

Away splitW-W-L-W2.50 scored / 2.50 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 2.25. The V4 confidence band is HIGH with an expected ROI of 6.85% based on n=441 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Australia Capital Territory Premier League (au). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick2

Odd2.25

V2 BandMEDIUMROI 4.27% · n=1151

V4 BandHIGHROI 6.85% · n=441

Odds TrendRising

VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

This looks like a competitive matchup, although the form profile gives the selected side some support. There is some statistical support behind the pick, but the historical signal is not strong enough to be aggressive. Shot-on-target data gives additional support to Tuggeranong Utd's attacking profile.

Current Combo momentum is mixed. Recent results show alternating performance between short-term and medium-term windows.

3D: 30.9% 7D: -1.5% 15D: 0.9% 30D: 15.5%

Model insight

O’Connor Knights – Tuggeranong Utd Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 2.25. This prediction is generated by the TipA1 model profile. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM, with a historical expected ROI of 4.27% across 1151 similar predictions. The V4 confidence band is HIGH, with a historical expected ROI of 6.85% across 441 historical samples. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. Moderate odds volatility indicates some market disagreement during the pre-match phase. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample207

Win Rate41.5%

Profit-10.18u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
WIN	Sandefjord U19 - Asane Fotball U19	2.45	4.27%
LOSS	Bragantino U20 (W) - Portuguesa Desportos U20 (W)	2.25	4.27%
WIN	America FC Propria - Atletico Gloriense	2.10	3.75%
WIN	FC Vsetin - Sigma Olomouc B	2.10	3.75%
LOSS	IFK Berga - IFK Trelleborg	2.35	4.27%
LOSS	Stockport - Preston	2.20	3.75%
WIN	Al Nejmeh - Al Ansar Beirut	2.30	4.27%
LOSS	Cove Rangers - Airdrieonians	2.25	4.27%

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Pick

2 @ 2.25

Kickoff

Giu 13, 2026 9:00 AM

Confidence

CONF: MEDIUM

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 4.27% • n=1151

Confidence V4

CONF V4: HIGH

Exp. ROI V4

6.85% • n=441

Start

Started 55d 2h ago

Updated

Updated 57d 6h ago