Model: TIPPSH

Operario PR vs Chapecoense

PREDICTION

@ 2.42

StatusArchived prediction

KickoffMag 07, 2026 4:30 AM

ResultLOSS1 - 2

StartStarted 65d 10h ago

V2 ConfidenceHIGHExpected ROI 6.90% · n=238

V4 ConfidenceHIGHExpected ROI 6.90% · n=238

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 65d 13h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Operario PR. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Operario PR

Shots Rating

Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Shots on Target

Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

54/100

Good value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds2.07First seen

Current2.42Now

Max odds2.47Highest point

Min odds2.07Lowest point

VolatilityHighStable range

TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Operario PRHOME

ChapecoenseAWAY

LWWDD

Recent form

WLWLL

Avg goals scored

1.20

Defensive weakness

0.60

1.40

Shots on target for

4.00

4.20

SoT conceded pressure

3.60

5.20

Home splitL-W-D-D-D1.00 scored / 0.60 conceded

Away splitW-L-L-D-L0.60 scored / 1.20 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 2.42. The V4 confidence band is HIGH with an expected ROI of 6.90% based on n=238 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Brazil Copa Sul-Sudeste (br). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick1

Odd2.42

V2 BandHIGHROI 6.90% · n=238

V4 BandHIGHROI 6.90% · n=238

Odds TrendRising

VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

Although the odds are relatively high, Operario PR shows enough recent performance support to make the pick interesting from a risk/reward perspective. The selection falls within a stronger historical confidence range, which makes the higher price more interesting.

Current Combo momentum is weak. Recent short-term performance has been below expectations, suggesting that current match conditions may be less favorable for the model.

3D: -30.9% 7D: -15.9% 15D: -2.4% 30D: 8.7%

Model insight

Operario PR – Chapecoense Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 2.42. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show HIGH confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 6.90% and 6.90%. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample17

Win Rate29.4%

Profit-4.93u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
LOSS	CRB - Fortaleza	2.17	6.72%
LOSS	KA Akureyri - Valur Reykjavik	2.30	6.90%
LOSS	FBK Karlstad - Umeå FC	2.30	6.90%
LOSS	FC Copenhagen - Midtjylland	2.51	6.90%
LOSS	Al-Arabi Al-Saudi - Al Jandal	2.63	6.90%
LOSS	FK Blansko - SK Unicov	2.45	6.90%
LOSS	Falkirk - Hibernian	2.31	6.90%
WIN	Al Hamriyah - Al Fujairah	2.45	6.90%

Active Similar Predictions

Match	Pick	Odd	Exp. ROI	Kickoff
LKS Lodz II - OKS Swit Skolwin	1	2.35	6.90%	08 May 17:00

Pick

1 @ 2.42

Kickoff

Mag 07, 2026 4:30 AM

Confidence

CONF: HIGH

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 6.90% • n=238

Confidence V4

CONF V4: HIGH

Exp. ROI V4

6.90% • n=238

Start

Started 65d 10h ago

Updated

Updated 65d 13h ago