Model: TIPPSA

Pacos Ferreira vs Paredes

PREDICTION

@ 2.38

StatusArchived prediction

KickoffAgo 15, 2026 8:30 PM

ResultWIN0 - 1

StartStarted 1d ago

V2 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 0.84% · n=717

V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 1d 2h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Paredes. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: ParedesGoal/Shots Index — H: -0.011 | A: -0.045

Shots Rating

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Away edge

Shots on Target

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Away edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

32/100

Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds3.20First seen

Current2.50Now

Max odds3.20Highest point

Min odds2.50Lowest point

VolatilityHighStable range

TrendDroppingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Pacos FerreiraHOME

ParedesAWAY

LLWDL

Recent form

WWWDL

Avg goals scored

1.00

2.00

Defensive weakness

1.40

1.20

Shots on target for

4.00

6.80

SoT conceded pressure

6.00

4.00

Home splitL-W-L-W-D1.40 scored / 1.40 conceded

Away splitW-L0.50 scored / 0.50 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 2.38. The V2 confidence band is LOW with an expected ROI of 0.84% based on n=717 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Portugal Liga 3 (pt). Odds movement is currently classified as Dropping with High volatility.

Pick2

Odd2.38

V2 BandLOWROI 0.84% · n=717

V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0

Odds TrendDropping

VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

The price is not extreme, and recent results provide a reasonable statistical basis for the pick. This selection carries a lower-confidence signal, so the risk profile remains elevated. Paredes has produced stronger recent offensive pressure in terms of shots on target.

Current Combo momentum is mixed. Recent results show alternating performance between short-term and medium-term windows.

3D: -22.4% 7D: -18.2% 15D: 3.7% 30D: 4.5%

Model insight

Pacos Ferreira – Paredes Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 2.38. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSA model profile. The V2 confidence band is LOW, with a historical expected ROI of 0.84% across 717 similar predictions. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The prediction received strong market support after the first appearance. Early prices historically produced the best long-term performance for this model profile. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample100

Win Rate40.0%

Profit-6.50u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
LOSS	SK Beveren - Anderlecht	2.36	0.84%
LOSS	St Mochtas - Malahide Utd	2.20	1.21%
LOSS	Pors Grenland - Bjarg	2.20	1.21%
LOSS	Puchov - Spartak Myjava	2.39	0.84%
WIN	Portadown - Dungannon Swifts	2.47	0.84%
LOSS	BATE Borisov - FC Vitebsk	2.45	0.84%
WIN	MFK Skalica - FC Kosice	2.17	1.21%
LOSS	Tobol Kostanay - Partizan Belgrade	2.24	1.21%

Pick

2 @ 2.38

Kickoff

Ago 15, 2026 8:30 PM

Confidence

CONF: LOW

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 0.84% • n=717

Start

Started 1d ago

Updated

Updated 1d 2h ago