Model: TIPPSH

Philadelphia Union vs New York Red Bulls

PREDICTION

@ 1.75

StatusUpcoming

KickoffLug 23, 2026 3:30 AM

ResultPending

StartStarts in 1h 38m

V2 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.31% · n=2537

V4 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.31% · n=2537

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 25m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Philadelphia Union. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Philadelphia UnionGoal/Shots Index — H: — | A: —

Shots Rating

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

26/100

Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds1.74First seen

Current1.75Now

Max odds1.76Highest point

Min odds1.74Lowest point

VolatilityLowStable range

TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Philadelphia UnionHOME

New York Red BullsAWAY

LDLLD

Recent form

WDWWL

Avg goals scored

1.80

Defensive weakness

2.60

1.40

Shots on target for

5.20

3.20

SoT conceded pressure

4.00

4.80

Home splitD-D-D0.33 scored / 0.33 conceded

Away splitW-W-L-L-D1.60 scored / 2.00 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 1.75. The V4 confidence band is LOW with an expected ROI of 1.31% based on n=2537 historical similar picks. The match belongs to USA MLS (us). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with Low volatility.

Pick1

Odd1.75

V2 BandLOWROI 1.31% · n=2537

V4 BandLOWROI 1.31% · n=2537

Odds TrendRising

VolatilityLow

AI Match Insight

The current price indicates market confidence, even if recent form does not show an overwhelming gap. Confidence remains limited, so this should be read as a cautious lean rather than a strong prediction. Philadelphia Union has produced stronger recent offensive pressure in terms of shots on target.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.

3D: 5.9% 7D: 31.3% 15D: 22.4% 30D: 22.2%

Model insight

Philadelphia Union – New York Red Bulls Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 1.75. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show LOW confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 1.31% and 1.31%. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Market movement remained relatively stable before kickoff, suggesting balanced sentiment around the initial model projection. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample234

Win Rate45.3%

Profit-36.22u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
WIN	RB Keflavik - KB Breidholt	1.96	1.04%
LOSS	Velez Sarsfield Reserves - CA Talleres de Córdoba Reserves	1.85	1.04%
WIN	Flint City Bucks - Steel City	1.81	1.04%
LOSS	Arsenal Tula - Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk	1.79	1.04%
WIN	South East United FC - Launceston United	1.95	1.04%
LOSS	Shaanxi Zhidan (W) - Zhejiang Hangzhou (W)	2.00	1.04%
WIN	Flamengo SP U23 - Matonense U23	1.75	1.04%
LOSS	Kaisar Kyzylorda - FK Kaspyi Aktau	1.96	1.31%

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Pick

1 @ 1.75

Kickoff

Lug 23, 2026 3:30 AM

Confidence

CONF: LOW

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 1.31% • n=2537

Confidence V4

CONF V4: LOW

Exp. ROI V4

1.31% • n=2537

Start

Starts in 1h 38m

Updated

Updated 25m ago