Model: TipA1
Port Darwin FC – Darwin Olympic
PREDICTION
2
@ 2.10
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffMag 16, 2026 2:30 PM
ResultLOSS6 - 1
StartStarted 10d 20h ago
V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 3.10% · n=319
V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 11d 10h ago
Team Form & Goal Trends
Recent form based on completed matches before kickoff.
| Metric | Port Darwin FC | Darwin Olympic |
|---|---|---|
| Last 5 form | W-L-W-W-L | L-D-W-W-W |
| Avg goals scored | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| Avg goals conceded | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| Home/Away form | W-L-W-L-W (home) | L-W-W-W (away) |
| Home/Away avg goals | 3.20 scored / 2.40 conceded | 4.50 scored / 2.50 conceded |
| Shots on target | 5.40 for / 4.40 against | 7.20 for / 6.60 against |
| Home/Away shots on target | 4.50 for / 4.25 against (home) | 8.75 for / 7.00 against (away) |
AI Match Insight
The matchup looks relatively balanced, so the value of the pick depends more on the model profile than on a clear form advantage. There is some statistical support behind the pick, but the historical signal is not strong enough to be aggressive. Darwin Olympic has produced stronger recent offensive pressure in terms of shots on target.
Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds1.83First seen
Current2.18Now
Max odds2.19Highest point
Min odds1.83Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term
Model insight
Port Darwin FC – Darwin Olympic Betting Analysis
The model currently selects 2 at odds 2.10. This prediction is generated by the TipA1 model profile. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM, with a historical expected ROI of 3.10% across 319 similar predictions. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample77
Win Rate42.9%
Profit-4.95u
Historical Similar Predictions
| Result | Match | Odd | Exp. ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| WIN | Sao Cristovao U20 - AA Carapebus U20 | 2.25 | 4.27% |
| LOSS | Almirante Brown Reserves - CA San Miguel Reserves | 2.25 | 4.27% |
| LOSS | KS Sniadowo - Supraslanka Suprasl | 2.35 | 4.27% |
| WIN | Muang Loei United - Uttaradit FC | 2.25 | 4.27% |
| WIN | Sportivo Luqueno - Olimpia Asuncion | 2.35 | 4.27% |
| LOSS | Sunrise Club Odisha - KLASA | 2.30 | 4.27% |
| LOSS | Rapid Bucuresti - CS U Craiova | 2.30 | 4.27% |
| LOSS | Ullensaker/Kisa U19 - Skeid U19 | 2.20 | 3.75% |
Pick
2 @ 2.10
Kickoff
Mag 16, 2026 2:30 PM
Confidence
CONF: MEDIUM
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 3.10% • n=319
Start
Started 10d 20h ago
Updated
Updated 11d 10h ago