Model: TIPPSA

Portland Hearts of Pine vs Fort Wayne FC

PREDICTION

@ 2.42

StatusArchived prediction

KickoffAgo 30, 2026 3:00 AM

ResultWIN1 - 4

StartStarted 1d 12h ago

V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 3.59% · n=214

V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 1d 14h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Fort Wayne FC. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Fort Wayne FCGoal/Shots Index — H: -0.022 | A: -0.188

Shots Rating

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Away edge

Shots on Target

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Away edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

42/100

Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds2.47First seen

Current2.63Now

Max odds2.63Highest point

Min odds2.40Lowest point

VolatilityHighStable range

TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Portland Hearts of PineHOME

Fort Wayne FCAWAY

LDDLL

Recent form

WLLLL

Avg goals scored

0.80

1.20

Defensive weakness

2.00

2.20

Shots on target for

2.40

5.80

SoT conceded pressure

6.00

4.40

Home splitL-L-L-L-D0.80 scored / 2.20 conceded

Away splitW-L-L-L-W1.60 scored / 1.80 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 2.42. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 3.59% based on n=214 historical similar picks. The match belongs to USA USL League One (us). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick2

Odd2.42

V2 BandMEDIUMROI 3.59% · n=214

V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0

Odds TrendRising

VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

The market prices Fort Wayne FC as an outsider, but recent form does not suggest a gap wide enough to completely dismiss the selection. The model gives this selection a reasonable profile, although the confidence level remains measured. Fort Wayne FC is also generating more shots on target, adding offensive support to the pick.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.

3D: 4.8% 7D: 21.1% 15D: 7.9% 30D: 7.8%

Model insight

Portland Hearts of Pine – Fort Wayne FC Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 2.42. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSA model profile. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM, with a historical expected ROI of 3.59% across 214 similar predictions. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. Moderate odds volatility indicates some market disagreement during the pre-match phase. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample197

Win Rate41.1%

Profit-0.22u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
WIN	Deportivo Moquegua - Alianza Atletico	2.63	4.13%
LOSS	Hartberg - SV Ried	2.50	4.13%
LOSS	Samgurali - FC Rustavi	2.33	4.13%
WIN	Chattanooga Red Wolves - AC Boise	2.26	4.13%
WIN	Deportes Limache - Everton de Vina	2.63	4.13%
LOSS	Padova - Verona	2.64	4.13%
LOSS	KVC Houtvenne - OH Leuven II	2.41	3.59%
WIN	Leighton Town - Bury Town	2.41	3.59%

Active Similar Predictions

Match	Pick	Odd	Exp. ROI	Kickoff
Asyut Petroleum - National Bank	2	2.26	4.13%	31 Aug 16:00

Pick

2 @ 2.42

Kickoff

Ago 30, 2026 3:00 AM

Confidence

CONF: MEDIUM

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 3.59% • n=214

Start

Started 1d 12h ago

Updated

Updated 1d 14h ago