Model: TipA1

Real Cartagena vs Union Magdalena

PREDICTION

@ 4.00

StatusArchived prediction

KickoffMag 09, 2026 4:30 AM

ResultLOSS2 - 1

StartStarted 63d 12h ago

V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 2.94% · n=184

V4 ConfidenceHIGHExpected ROI 6.46% · n=69

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 65d 13h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Union Magdalena. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Union Magdalena

Shots Rating

Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Shots on Target

Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

65/100

Good value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds3.60First seen

Current4.00Now

Max odds4.00Highest point

Min odds3.60Lowest point

VolatilityHighStable range

TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Real CartagenaHOME

Union MagdalenaAWAY

WWDLL

Recent form

LWDWL

Avg goals scored

1.00

1.40

Defensive weakness

1.00

1.20

Shots on target for

2.60

4.80

SoT conceded pressure

4.20

3.20

Home splitW-W-L-W1.75 scored / 1.25 conceded

Away splitL-D-W1.67 scored / 1.33 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 4.00. The V4 confidence band is HIGH with an expected ROI of 6.46% based on n=69 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Colombia Primera B (co). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick2

Odd4.00

V2 BandMEDIUMROI 2.94% · n=184

V4 BandHIGHROI 6.46% · n=69

Odds TrendRising

VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

From a statistical perspective, the difference between the two teams may be smaller than the current price indicates. The confidence profile is moderate, so the pick has statistical support but should not be treated as a low-risk prediction. Union Magdalena is also generating more shots on target, adding offensive support to the pick.

Current Combo momentum is weak. Recent short-term performance has been below expectations, suggesting that current match conditions may be less favorable for the model.

3D: -11.8% 7D: -15.2% 15D: -2.3% 30D: 8.6%

Model insight

Real Cartagena – Union Magdalena Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 4.00. This prediction is generated by the TipA1 model profile. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM, with a historical expected ROI of 2.94% across 184 similar predictions. The V4 confidence band is HIGH, with a historical expected ROI of 6.46% across 69 historical samples. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample36

Win Rate36.1%

Profit+15.30u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
WIN	Universitatea Cluj - Nyiregyhaza Spartacus	3.75	2.27%
WIN	Poxyt - MPS	4.20	4.37%
LOSS	Sportivo y Biblioteca Atenas - CA Costa Brava	3.80	2.27%
LOSS	Bath Estate - Mighty Avengers	4.00	2.27%
LOSS	PVF-CAND - Bac Ninh	3.90	2.27%
LOSS	Hudson Valley Crusaders (W) - New England Mutiny (W)	4.00	2.27%
LOSS	America RJ U20 - Artsul U20	3.75	4.37%
LOSS	Juventud Unida Universitario - CA Costa Brava	4.10	4.73%

Active Similar Predictions

Match	Pick	Odd	Exp. ROI	Kickoff
Clermont Foot - US Orleans 45	2	4.00	2.27%	11 Jul 17:00

Pick

2 @ 4.00

Kickoff

Mag 09, 2026 4:30 AM

Confidence

CONF: MEDIUM

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 2.94% • n=184

Confidence V4

CONF V4: HIGH

Exp. ROI V4

6.46% • n=69

Start

Started 63d 12h ago

Updated

Updated 65d 13h ago