Model: TipTromba2H

Sao Goncalo vs Audax Rio

PREDICTION

@ 1.95

StatusArchived prediction

KickoffLug 04, 2026 9:45 PM

ResultWIN2 - 1

StartStarted 48d 21h ago

V2 ConfidenceHIGHExpected ROI 7.35% · n=470

V4 ConfidenceHIGHExpected ROI 7.35% · n=470

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 49d 21h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Sao Goncalo. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Sao GoncaloGoal/Shots Index — H: — | A: —

Shots Rating

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

50/100

Good value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds1.98First seen

Current1.98Now

Max odds1.98Highest point

Min odds1.98Lowest point

VolatilityLowStable range

TrendStableShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Sao GoncaloHOME

Audax RioAWAY

WWWWD

Recent form

LWLLL

Avg goals scored

2.00

0.80

Defensive weakness

0.60

1.40

Shots on target for

5.00

2.00

SoT conceded pressure

2.40

5.20

Home splitW-W-W-D-L1.40 scored / 1.00 conceded

Away splitL-L-L-L-W0.60 scored / 1.40 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 1.95. The V4 confidence band is HIGH with an expected ROI of 7.35% based on n=470 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 (br). Odds movement is currently classified as Stable with Low volatility.

Pick1

Odd1.95

V2 BandHIGHROI 7.35% · n=470

V4 BandHIGHROI 7.35% · n=470

Odds TrendStable

VolatilityLow

AI Match Insight

This looks like a competitive matchup, although the form profile gives the selected side some support. The HIGH confidence band reinforces the selection, with comparable historical cases showing a stronger expected profile. Shot-on-target data gives additional support to Sao Goncalo's attacking profile.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.

3D: 31.1% 7D: 63.2% 15D: 26.2% 30D: 11.0%

Model insight

Sao Goncalo – Audax Rio Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 1.95. This prediction is generated by the TipTromba2H model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show HIGH confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 7.35% and 7.35%. Historical expected profitability for this profile has been well above average, although future outcomes remain sensitive to market and team-news conditions. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Market movement remained relatively stable before kickoff, suggesting balanced sentiment around the initial model projection. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample265

Win Rate57.0%

Profit+13.40u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
LOSS	Dandenong City U23 - Preston Lions U23	1.91	7.35%
WIN	SK Krumvir - FC Brumov	1.83	7.35%
LOSS	Guilsfield - Ruthin Town FC	1.70	6.49%
WIN	Blacktown Spartans U20 - Hurstville FC U20	1.80	6.89%
LOSS	Essendon Royals - Keilor Park	1.83	7.35%
WIN	Box Hill United - Nunawading	1.85	6.89%
LOSS	Motorlet Praha - Dukla Praha B	1.80	6.89%
WIN	Atletico El Vigia - Real Frontera	1.91	7.35%

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Pick

1 @ 1.95

Kickoff

Lug 04, 2026 9:45 PM

Confidence

CONF: HIGH

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 7.35% • n=470

Confidence V4

CONF V4: HIGH

Exp. ROI V4

7.35% • n=470

Start

Started 48d 21h ago

Updated

Updated 49d 21h ago