Model: TipTromba45H

Kelty Hearts vs Dunfermline

PREDICTION

@ 4.33

StatusArchived prediction

KickoffLug 04, 2026 6:00 PM

ResultLOSS0 - 3

StartStarted 50d 3h ago

V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 4.19% · n=77

V4 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 4.19% · n=77

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 50d 20h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Kelty Hearts. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Kelty HeartsGoal/Shots Index — H: — | A: —

Shots Rating

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Balanced

Shots on Target

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

59/100

Good value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds4.33First seen

Current4.40Now

Max odds4.40Highest point

Min odds4.33Lowest point

VolatilityLowStable range

TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Kelty HeartsHOME

DunfermlineAWAY

LLLWL

Recent form

WWLLL

Avg goals scored

0.60

1.40

Defensive weakness

2.20

1.40

Shots on target for

2.40

5.20

SoT conceded pressure

4.00

3.60

Home splitL-L-W-D1.00 scored / 1.75 conceded

Away splitW-W-L-L-L1.40 scored / 1.40 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 4.33. The V4 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 4.19% based on n=77 historical similar picks. The match belongs to UK Friendlies (gb). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with Low volatility.

Pick1

Odd4.33

V2 BandMEDIUMROI 4.19% · n=77

V4 BandMEDIUMROI 4.19% · n=77

Odds TrendRising

VolatilityLow

AI Match Insight

Recent performances only partially support the selection, which helps explain the higher market price. This sits in a middle confidence range, suggesting a balanced but not especially dominant setup.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.

3D: 31.1% 7D: 63.2% 15D: 26.2% 30D: 11.0%

Model insight

Kelty Hearts – Dunfermline Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 4.33. This prediction is generated by the TipTromba45H model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show MEDIUM confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 4.19% and 4.19%. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Market movement remained relatively stable before kickoff, suggesting balanced sentiment around the initial model projection. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample29

Win Rate20.7%

Profit-3.41u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
LOSS	Locarno - FC Tuggen	4.20	2.97%
LOSS	Hvezda Cheb - Slovan Velvary	4.20	4.86%
WIN	Atletico Barinas - Zamora	4.20	2.97%
LOSS	AFC Eskilstuna - IK Oddevold	4.20	4.86%
LOSS	Hope Internacional FC - AA Iguacu	4.10	4.86%
WIN	Dunarea Giurgiu - Cetatea Turnu Magurele	4.33	4.19%
LOSS	Polisportiva Ossese - Torres	4.20	4.86%
LOSS	SV Poortugaal - Barendrecht	4.33	4.19%

Active Similar Predictions

Match	Pick	Odd	Exp. ROI	Kickoff
Grosseto - Spezia	1	4.10	2.97%	23 Aug 21:00
Planalto EC U20 - Trindade U20	1	4.33	4.19%	24 Aug 20:30

Pick

1 @ 4.33

Kickoff

Lug 04, 2026 6:00 PM

Confidence

CONF: MEDIUM

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 4.19% • n=77

Confidence V4

CONF V4: MEDIUM

Exp. ROI V4

4.19% • n=77

Start

Started 50d 3h ago

Updated

Updated 50d 20h ago