Essendon Royals – Keilor Park

Model: TipTromba2H

Essendon Royals vs Keilor Park

PREDICTION
1
@ 1.67
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffAgo 21, 2026 2:30 PM
ResultLOSS1 - 4
StartStarted 12h 27m ago
V2 ConfidenceNONEExpected ROI -1.89% · n=1157
V4 ConfidenceNONEExpected ROI -1.89% · n=1157
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 1d 2h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Essendon Royals. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Essendon RoyalsGoal/Shots Index — H: -0.034 | A: 0.001

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

14/100
Poor value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds1.83First seen
Current1.68Now
Max odds1.83Highest point
Min odds1.67Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendDroppingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Essendon RoyalsHOME
VS
Keilor ParkAWAY
LWWWD
Recent form
WDLWL
Avg goals scored
2.40
1.60
Defensive weakness
2.00
1.80
Shots on target for
6.00
4.20
SoT conceded pressure
4.40
5.60
Home splitL-W-W-W-W2.80 scored / 2.40 conceded
Away splitW-W-W-L-L2.00 scored / 1.80 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 1.67. The V4 confidence band is NONE with an expected ROI of -1.89% based on n=1157 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Australia Victoria Premier League 2 (au). Odds movement is currently classified as Dropping with High volatility.

Pick1
Odd1.67
V2 BandNONEROI -1.89% · n=1157
V4 BandNONEROI -1.89% · n=1157
Odds TrendDropping
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

The short price is supported by recent form data, with Essendon Royals showing a clearer performance edge. This selection carries a lower-confidence signal, so the risk profile remains elevated. Essendon Royals has produced stronger recent offensive pressure in terms of shots on target.

Current Combo momentum is positive. Recent Combo selections remain profitable across multiple recent windows, indicating stable short-term performance.
3D: 60.6% 7D: 6.8% 15D: 5.8% 30D: 4.5%
Model insight

Essendon Royals – Keilor Park Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 1.67. This prediction is generated by the TipTromba2H model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show NONE confidence, with historical expected ROI values of -1.89% and -1.89%. Historical performance for this profile has been negative or unstable, so this signal should be treated with additional caution. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The prediction received strong market support after the first appearance. Early prices historically produced the best long-term performance for this model profile. Moderate odds volatility indicates some market disagreement during the pre-match phase. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample551
Win Rate64.6%
Profit+20.47u
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WINFK Auda - Tukums 20001.57-1.89%
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Pick
1 @ 1.67
Kickoff
Ago 21, 2026 2:30 PM
Confidence
CONF: NONE
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI -1.89% • n=1157
Confidence V4
Exp. ROI V4
-1.89% • n=1157
Start
Started 12h 27m ago
Updated
Updated 1d 2h ago
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