UCD – Derry City

Model: TipTromba6H

UCD vs Derry City

PREDICTION
1
@ 5.25
StatusUpcoming
KickoffAgo 14, 2026 10:45 PM
ResultPending
StartStarts in 2h 46m
V2 ConfidenceELITEExpected ROI 8.20% · n=51
V4 ConfidenceELITEExpected ROI 8.20% · n=51
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 1d 6h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is UCD. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: UCDGoal/Shots Index — H: 0.067 | A: 0.024

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

76/100
Excellent value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds4.77First seen
Current5.25Now
Max odds5.25Highest point
Min odds4.77Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

UCDHOME
VS
Derry CityAWAY
WLDWW
Recent form
WDLLW
Avg goals scored
2.40
1.20
Defensive weakness
1.20
0.60
Shots on target for
5.20
5.00
SoT conceded pressure
5.40
3.80
Home splitW-L-W-W-L2.40 scored / 1.20 conceded
Away splitD-L-L-D-L1.00 scored / 1.60 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 5.25. The V4 confidence band is ELITE with an expected ROI of 8.20% based on n=51 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Republic of Ireland FAI Cup (ie). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick1
Odd5.25
V2 BandELITEROI 8.20% · n=51
V4 BandELITEROI 8.20% · n=51
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

Despite entering the match at a generous price, UCD has produced enough positive indicators to justify attention. Historical model performance remains supportive, with similar ELITE underdog setups showing encouraging long-term results.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.
3D: -11.2% 7D: 8.1% 15D: 11.9% 30D: 9.4%
Model insight

UCD – Derry City Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 5.25. This prediction is generated by the TipTromba6H model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show ELITE confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 8.20% and 8.20%. Historical expected profitability for this profile has been well above average, although future outcomes remain sensitive to market and team-news conditions. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample18
Win Rate22.2%
Profit+3.25u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
LOSSAtletico San Luis (W) - Toluca (W)5.258.20%
LOSSGirona - Arsenal5.009.41%
LOSSAguilas - Almeria5.508.20%
LOSSFC Nagykanizsa - Diosgyori VTK5.009.41%
LOSSAldershot - Oxford Utd5.258.20%
WINMalisheva - Hibernian5.508.20%
LOSSSutton Utd - AFC Wimbledon5.009.41%
LOSSKSV Oudenaarde - Club Brugge II5.009.41%
Pick
1 @ 5.25
Kickoff
Ago 14, 2026 10:45 PM
Confidence
CONF: ELITE
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 8.20% • n=51
Confidence V4
Exp. ROI V4
8.20% • n=51
Start
Starts in 2h 46m
Updated
Updated 1d 6h ago
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