Model: TipTromba2H
VV Alkmaar (W) – Excelsior (W)
PREDICTION
1
@ 1.83
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffMag 22, 2026 10:00 PM
ResultWIN1 - 0
StartStarted 4d 6h ago
V2 ConfidenceELITEExpected ROI 10.87% · n=72
V4 ConfidenceELITEExpected ROI 10.87% · n=72
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 5d 6h ago
Team Form & Goal Trends
Recent form based on completed matches before kickoff.
| Metric | VV Alkmaar (W) | Excelsior (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Last 5 form | W-L-L-D-D | L-L-L-L-W |
| Avg goals scored | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| Avg goals conceded | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| Home/Away form | W-L-D (home) | L-L (away) |
| Home/Away avg goals | 1.00 scored / 2.00 conceded | 0.50 scored / 2.50 conceded |
| Shots on target | 6.80 for / 6.40 against | 2.00 for / 10.00 against |
| Home/Away shots on target | 6.67 for / 5.33 against (home) | 1.50 for / 12.50 against (away) |
AI Match Insight
The price is not extreme, and recent results provide a reasonable statistical basis for the pick. The ELITE confidence band reinforces the selection, with comparable historical cases showing a stronger expected profile. VV Alkmaar (W) has produced stronger recent offensive pressure in terms of shots on target.
Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds1.34First seen
Current1.83Now
Max odds2.07Highest point
Min odds1.34Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term
Model insight
VV Alkmaar (W) – Excelsior (W) Betting Analysis
The model currently selects 1 at odds 1.83. This prediction is generated by the TipTromba2H model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show ELITE confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 10.87% and 10.87%. Historical expected profitability for this profile has been well above average, although future outcomes remain sensitive to market and team-news conditions. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample9
Win Rate55.6%
Profit+0.35u
Historical Similar Predictions
| Result | Match | Odd | Exp. ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| LOSS | IAPE U20 - Sao Luis MA U20 | 1.83 | 10.87% |
| LOSS | Balcatta FC (W) - Perth Redstar FC (W) | 1.91 | 10.87% |
| WIN | Nautico Capibaribe U20 - Retro U20 | 1.83 | 11.18% |
| LOSS | Sabah - Neftchi Baku | 1.75 | 11.18% |
| WIN | Mitchelton FC - Brisbane Knights | 1.90 | 11.18% |
| LOSS | Hakoah Sydney City East - Canterbury Bankstown FC | 1.91 | 11.18% |
| WIN | Brentford U21 - Derby U21 | 1.80 | 11.18% |
| WIN | Apollon Limassol (W) - Aris Limassol (W) | 1.91 | 11.18% |
Pick
1 @ 1.83
Kickoff
Mag 22, 2026 10:00 PM
Confidence
CONF: ELITE
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 10.87% • n=72
Confidence V4
Exp. ROI V4
10.87% • n=72
Start
Started 4d 6h ago
Updated
Updated 5d 6h ago