VV Alkmaar (W) – Excelsior (W)

Model: TipTromba2H

VV Alkmaar (W) vs Excelsior (W)

PREDICTION
1
@ 1.83
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffMag 22, 2026 10:00 PM
ResultWIN1 - 0
StartStarted 49d 7h ago
V2 ConfidenceELITEExpected ROI 10.87% · n=72
V4 ConfidenceELITEExpected ROI 10.87% · n=72
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 50d 7h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is VV Alkmaar (W). This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: VV Alkmaar (W)

Shots Rating

H
A
Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Shots on Target

H
A
Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

60/100
Good value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds1.34First seen
Current1.83Now
Max odds2.07Highest point
Min odds1.34Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

VV Alkmaar (W)HOME
VS
Excelsior (W)AWAY
WLLDD
Recent form
LLLLW
Avg goals scored
1.40
0.60
Defensive weakness
2.40
2.00
Shots on target for
6.80
2.00
SoT conceded pressure
6.40
10.00
Home splitW-L-D1.00 scored / 2.00 conceded
Away splitL-L0.50 scored / 2.50 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 1.83. The V4 confidence band is ELITE with an expected ROI of 10.87% based on n=72 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Netherlands Eredivisie Women (nl). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick1
Odd1.83
V2 BandELITEROI 10.87% · n=72
V4 BandELITEROI 10.87% · n=72
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

This looks like a competitive matchup, although the form profile gives the selected side some support. The ELITE confidence band reinforces the selection, with comparable historical cases showing a stronger expected profile. VV Alkmaar (W) is also generating more shots on target, adding offensive support to the pick.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.
3D: 27.6% 7D: 20.6% 15D: 15.1% 30D: 5.4%
Model insight

VV Alkmaar (W) – Excelsior (W) Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 1.83. This prediction is generated by the TipTromba2H model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show ELITE confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 10.87% and 10.87%. Historical expected profitability for this profile has been well above average, although future outcomes remain sensitive to market and team-news conditions. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample13
Win Rate46.2%
Profit-1.80u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
LOSSOlimpija Ljubljana - FK Cukaricki1.9110.87%
WINRhode Island Rogues (W) - Albany Rush (W)1.8510.87%
LOSSHubei Istar U20 - Shanghai Port U201.9110.87%
LOSSBenfica Macau - Cheng Fung1.8510.87%
LOSSIAPE U20 - Sao Luis MA U201.8310.87%
LOSSBalcatta FC (W) - Perth Redstar FC (W)1.9110.87%
WINNautico Capibaribe U20 - Retro U201.8311.18%
LOSSSabah - Neftchi Baku1.7511.18%
Active Similar Predictions
MatchPickOddExp. ROIKickoff
PEPO - HPS11.8010.87%11 Jul 16:00
Pick
1 @ 1.83
Kickoff
Mag 22, 2026 10:00 PM
Confidence
CONF: ELITE
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 10.87% • n=72
Confidence V4
Exp. ROI V4
10.87% • n=72
Start
Started 49d 7h ago
Updated
Updated 50d 7h ago
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