Model: TIPPSA
Barra FC – Caxias RS
PREDICTION
2
@ 3.27
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffMag 11, 2026 12:00 AM
ResultLOSS0 - 0
StartStarted 16d 1h ago
V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 2.94% · n=186
V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 16d 4h ago
Team Form & Goal Trends
Recent form based on completed matches before kickoff.
| Metric | Barra FC | Caxias RS |
|---|---|---|
| Last 5 form | D-W-D-L-D | D-D-D-W-W |
| Avg goals scored | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Avg goals conceded | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| Home/Away form | D-D-L-W (home) | D-D-D-L-L (away) |
| Home/Away avg goals | 1.25 scored / 0.75 conceded | 0.40 scored / 0.80 conceded |
| Shots on target | 4.20 for / 4.00 against | 5.80 for / 2.80 against |
| Home/Away shots on target | 4.00 for / 3.50 against (home) | 5.20 for / 2.40 against (away) |
AI Match Insight
While the odds remain elevated, the underlying metrics suggest the selection may be more competitive than the market implies. This sits in a middle confidence range, suggesting a balanced but not especially dominant setup. Caxias RS is also generating more shots on target, adding offensive support to the pick.
Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds3.40First seen
Current3.65Now
Max odds4.24Highest point
Min odds3.35Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term
Model insight
Barra FC – Caxias RS Betting Analysis
The model currently selects 2 at odds 3.27. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSA model profile. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM, with a historical expected ROI of 2.94% across 186 similar predictions. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample26
Win Rate42.3%
Profit+10.62u
Historical Similar Predictions
| Result | Match | Odd | Exp. ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| LOSS | Rapid Vienna - SV Ried | 3.29 | 4.77% |
| WIN | America MG - Vila Nova | 3.33 | 3.84% |
| LOSS | Slavia Prague - Viktoria Plzen | 3.49 | 4.77% |
| LOSS | Widzew Lodz - Piast Gliwice | 3.28 | 4.77% |
| WIN | Sport Recife - CRB | 3.38 | 3.04% |
| LOSS | Iwaki FC - Matsumoto Y FC | 3.40 | 2.94% |
| LOSS | Yunnan Yukun - Shanghai Shenhua | 3.31 | 2.94% |
| WIN | Maritimo - Chaves | 3.30 | 2.94% |
Pick
2 @ 3.27
Kickoff
Mag 11, 2026 12:00 AM
Confidence
CONF: MEDIUM
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 2.94% • n=186
Start
Started 16d 1h ago
Updated
Updated 16d 4h ago