Model: TIPPSA
Omiya Ardija (W) – Nojima (W)
PREDICTION
2
@ 4.75
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffMag 16, 2026 8:00 AM
ResultWIN0 - 4
StartStarted 10d 21h ago
V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 5.00% · n=48
V4 ConfidenceHIGHExpected ROI 7.78% · n=16
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 11d 1h ago
Team Form & Goal Trends
Recent form based on completed matches before kickoff.
| Metric | Omiya Ardija (W) | Nojima (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Last 5 form | L-D-D-D-W | W-W-L-W-W |
| Avg goals scored | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| Avg goals conceded | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| Home/Away form | L-D-D-W-L (home) | W-W-W (away) |
| Home/Away avg goals | 1.20 scored / 2.00 conceded | 2.67 scored / 0.00 conceded |
| Shots on target | 4.80 for / 6.40 against | 6.80 for / 3.00 against |
| Home/Away shots on target | 4.60 for / 6.40 against (home) | 7.00 for / 2.67 against (away) |
AI Match Insight
While the odds remain elevated, the underlying metrics suggest the selection may be more competitive than the market implies. The confidence profile is moderate, so the pick has statistical support but should not be treated as a low-risk prediction. Nojima (W) has produced stronger recent offensive pressure in terms of shots on target.
Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds3.33First seen
Current4.83Now
Max odds5.50Highest point
Min odds3.33Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term
Model insight
Omiya Ardija (W) – Nojima (W) Betting Analysis
The model currently selects 2 at odds 4.75. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSA model profile. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM, with a historical expected ROI of 5.00% across 48 similar predictions. The V4 confidence band is HIGH, with a historical expected ROI of 7.78% across 16 historical samples. Historical expected profitability for this profile has been well above average, although future outcomes remain sensitive to market and team-news conditions. The available sample size is still relatively limited, which may increase performance variability. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample7
Win Rate14.3%
Profit-2.25u
Historical Similar Predictions
| Result | Match | Odd | Exp. ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| LOSS | Eibar - Cordoba | 4.79 | 3.75% |
| LOSS | UTC Cajamarca - Sport Boys | 4.75 | 3.75% |
| LOSS | Palermo - Catanzaro | 4.98 | 3.75% |
| LOSS | SCR Altach - SV Ried | 4.76 | 5.00% |
| LOSS | KuPS Kuopio - SJK | 4.99 | 5.00% |
| LOSS | Ravenna - ASD Pineto Calcio | 4.93 | 5.00% |
Pick
2 @ 4.75
Kickoff
Mag 16, 2026 8:00 AM
Confidence
CONF: MEDIUM
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 5.00% • n=48
Confidence V4
Exp. ROI V4
7.78% • n=16
Start
Started 10d 21h ago
Updated
Updated 11d 1h ago