Model: TIPPSH
KS Mszczonowianka – Wilga Garwolin
PREDICTION
1
@ 2.38
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffMag 22, 2026 8:00 PM
ResultLOSS3 - 3
StartStarted 4d 5h ago
V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 2.49% · n=1025
V4 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 2.49% · n=1025
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 4d 7h ago
Team Form & Goal Trends
Recent form based on completed matches before kickoff.
| Metric | KS Mszczonowianka | Wilga Garwolin |
|---|---|---|
| Last 5 form | D-L-D-L | D |
| Avg goals scored | 1.25 | 3.00 |
| Avg goals conceded | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| Home/Away form | D (home) | D (away) |
| Home/Away avg goals | 3.00 scored / 3.00 conceded | 3.00 scored / 3.00 conceded |
| Shots on target | 4.75 for / 6.50 against | 6.00 for / 8.00 against |
| Home/Away shots on target | 8.00 for / 6.00 against (home) | 6.00 for / 8.00 against (away) |
AI Match Insight
The matchup looks relatively balanced, so the value of the pick depends more on the model profile than on a clear form advantage. The confidence profile is moderate, so the pick has statistical support but should not be treated as a low-risk prediction.
Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds1.95First seen
Current2.38Now
Max odds2.41Highest point
Min odds1.95Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term
Model insight
KS Mszczonowianka – Wilga Garwolin Betting Analysis
The model currently selects 1 at odds 2.38. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show MEDIUM confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 2.49% and 2.49%. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample61
Win Rate36.1%
Profit-11.74u
Historical Similar Predictions
| Result | Match | Odd | Exp. ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| LOSS | Bangor Celtic FC - St Mochtas | 2.27 | 2.49% |
| WIN | Ascoli - Catania | 2.28 | 2.49% |
| WIN | 29 de Septiembre FBC - Club General Martin Ledesma | 2.31 | 3.15% |
| LOSS | Central & Western - Hoi King | 2.20 | 3.37% |
| WIN | Kariya - Gakunan F Mosuperio | 2.28 | 2.49% |
| WIN | Leones de Rosario - General Lamadrid | 2.38 | 2.49% |
| LOSS | B36 Torshavn II - Vikingur Gota II | 2.21 | 3.37% |
| WIN | Essendon Royals (W) - Box Hill (W) | 2.40 | 2.49% |
Pick
1 @ 2.38
Kickoff
Mag 22, 2026 8:00 PM
Confidence
CONF: MEDIUM
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 2.49% • n=1025
Confidence V4
Exp. ROI V4
2.49% • n=1025
Start
Started 4d 5h ago
Updated
Updated 4d 7h ago