Model: TIPPSH
Sao Goncalo – Cabofriense
PREDICTION
1
@ 2.75
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffMag 23, 2026 10:00 PM
ResultLOSS0 - 2
StartStarted 3d 3h ago
V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 4.53% · n=669
V4 ConfidenceNONEExpected ROI -2.58% · n=51
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 3d 5h ago
Team Form & Goal Trends
Recent form based on completed matches before kickoff.
| Metric | Sao Goncalo | Cabofriense |
|---|---|---|
| Last 5 form | L-L-L-W-L | W-D-D-L-W |
| Avg goals scored | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| Avg goals conceded | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| Home/Away form | L-L-L (home) | W-D-L (away) |
| Home/Away avg goals | 0.33 scored / 1.67 conceded | 1.33 scored / 1.00 conceded |
| Shots on target | 4.80 for / 3.80 against | 3.80 for / 4.20 against |
| Home/Away shots on target | 4.67 for / 3.67 against (home) | 4.00 for / 5.33 against (away) |
AI Match Insight
The elevated odds reflect a naturally higher-risk profile, especially because recent form does not clearly favor Sao Goncalo. There is some statistical support behind the pick, but the historical signal is not strong enough to be aggressive. Sao Goncalo is also generating more shots on target, adding offensive support to the pick.
Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds2.15First seen
Current2.75Now
Max odds2.78Highest point
Min odds1.91Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term
Model insight
Sao Goncalo – Cabofriense Betting Analysis
The model currently selects 1 at odds 2.75. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM, with a historical expected ROI of 4.53% across 669 similar predictions. The V4 confidence band is NONE, with a historical expected ROI of -2.58% across 51 historical samples. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample6
Win Rate50.0%
Profit+1.95u
Historical Similar Predictions
| Result | Match | Odd | Exp. ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| WIN | Island Bay United - Petone FC | 2.68 | 2.49% |
| WIN | Mlandege FC - Uhamiaji FC | 2.57 | 2.49% |
| LOSS | Gimnasia Mendoza Reserves - Atletico Tucuman Reserves | 2.50 | 2.49% |
| LOSS | Ural - Dynamo Makhachkala | 2.56 | 3.15% |
| WIN | USM Alger - Olympique Akbou | 2.70 | 2.49% |
Pick
1 @ 2.75
Kickoff
Mag 23, 2026 10:00 PM
Confidence
CONF: MEDIUM
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 4.53% • n=669
Confidence V4
Exp. ROI V4
-2.58% • n=51
Start
Started 3d 3h ago
Updated
Updated 3d 5h ago