Sanfrecce Hiroshima – Nagoya Grampus

Model: TIPPSH

Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Nagoya Grampus

PREDICTION
1
@ 1.85
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffMag 23, 2026 9:00 AM
ResultWIN4 - 2
StartStarted 50d 1h ago
V2 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.04% · n=5438
V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 50d 3h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Sanfrecce Hiroshima. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Shots Rating

H
A
Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Shots on Target

H
A
Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

26/100
Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds1.70First seen
Current1.85Now
Max odds1.85Highest point
Min odds1.70Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Sanfrecce HiroshimaHOME
VS
Nagoya GrampusAWAY
WWWDL
Recent form
LLWWW
Avg goals scored
2.00
2.00
Defensive weakness
0.80
2.40
Shots on target for
5.20
5.20
SoT conceded pressure
3.40
6.80
Home splitW-D-W-W-D2.00 scored / 1.00 conceded
Away splitL-L-W-W-L1.80 scored / 2.80 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 1.85. The V2 confidence band is LOW with an expected ROI of 1.04% based on n=5438 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Japan J-League (jp). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick1
Odd1.85
V2 BandLOWROI 1.04% · n=5438
V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

With no dominant recent form edge, the pick should be interpreted mainly through the model's historical profile. This selection carries a lower-confidence signal, so the risk profile remains elevated.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.
3D: 57.7% 7D: 42.6% 15D: 25.8% 30D: 9.7%
Model insight

Sanfrecce Hiroshima – Nagoya Grampus Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 1.85. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. The V2 confidence band is LOW, with a historical expected ROI of 1.04% across 5438 similar predictions. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. Moderate odds volatility indicates some market disagreement during the pre-match phase. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample282
Win Rate46.5%
Profit-29.35u
Historical Similar Predictions
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LOSSDeportivo Moron - Deportivo Madryn1.951.04%
LOSSVikingur Reykjavik (W) - IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W)1.971.04%
WINWarta Sieradz - LKS Lodz II2.051.04%
WINSlovacko - FC Zorya Lugansk1.961.31%
WINEC Juventude - Vila Nova1.841.04%
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Pick
1 @ 1.85
Kickoff
Mag 23, 2026 9:00 AM
Confidence
CONF: LOW
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 1.04% • n=5438
Start
Started 50d 1h ago
Updated
Updated 50d 3h ago
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