Model: TipA1

AP Brera Strumica vs FK Skopje

PREDICTION

@ 3.75

StatusArchived prediction

KickoffMag 31, 2026 6:30 PM

ResultLOSS0 - 0

StartStarted 47d 15h ago

V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 4.37% · n=123

V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 48d 3h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is FK Skopje. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: FK Skopje

Shots Rating

Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Shots on Target

Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

56/100

Good value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds2.60First seen

Current3.75Now

Max odds3.75Highest point

Min odds2.60Lowest point

VolatilityHighStable range

TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

AP Brera StrumicaHOME

FK SkopjeAWAY

LWLDW

Recent form

WWWWW

Avg goals scored

2.00

3.00

Defensive weakness

1.00

0.40

Shots on target for

2.00

4.33

SoT conceded pressure

5.00

1.33

Home splitL-W-D-L-D1.80 scored / 1.00 conceded

Away splitW-W-W-W-W2.40 scored / 0.20 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 3.75. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 4.37% based on n=123 historical similar picks. The match belongs to North Macedonia First League Play-Offs (mk). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick2

Odd3.75

V2 BandMEDIUMROI 4.37% · n=123

V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0

Odds TrendRising

VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

While the odds remain elevated, the underlying metrics suggest the selection may be more competitive than the market implies. There is some statistical support behind the pick, but the historical signal is not strong enough to be aggressive. FK Skopje is also generating more shots on target, adding offensive support to the pick.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.

3D: 7.6% 7D: 8.2% 15D: 22.8% 30D: 8.6%

Model insight

AP Brera Strumica – FK Skopje Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 3.75. This prediction is generated by the TipA1 model profile. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM, with a historical expected ROI of 4.37% across 123 similar predictions. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample35

Win Rate34.3%

Profit+10.40u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
LOSS	Marine - Colwyn Bay	3.75	2.27%
LOSS	Clermont Foot - US Orleans 45	4.00	2.27%
WIN	Universitatea Cluj - Nyiregyhaza Spartacus	3.75	2.27%
WIN	Serrano - Sao Goncalo	3.70	2.63%
WIN	FC Trinity Zlin - MFK Skalica	3.50	2.63%
LOSS	Ferroviario Lichinga - Costa Do Sol	3.50	2.63%
LOSS	Adelaide Cobras - Eastern United	3.70	2.63%
LOSS	Sportivo y Biblioteca Atenas - CA Costa Brava	3.80	2.27%

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Pick

2 @ 3.75

Kickoff

Mag 31, 2026 6:30 PM

Confidence

CONF: MEDIUM

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 4.37% • n=123

Start

Started 47d 15h ago

Updated

Updated 48d 3h ago