Model: TIPPSA

IFK Mariehamn vs IF Gnistan

PREDICTION

@ 2.04

StatusArchived prediction

KickoffGiu 13, 2026 8:00 PM

ResultWIN0 - 3

StartStarted 58d 19h ago

V2 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.21% · n=228

V4 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.21% · n=228

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 59d 4h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is IF Gnistan. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: IF GnistanGoal/Shots Index — H: — | A: —

Shots Rating

Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Shots on Target

Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

29/100

Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds2.00First seen

Current2.04Now

Max odds2.04Highest point

Min odds2.00Lowest point

VolatilityLowStable range

TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

IFK MariehamnHOME

IF GnistanAWAY

LLLLD

Recent form

WWLWD

Avg goals scored

0.20

2.40

Defensive weakness

1.80

1.00

Shots on target for

2.00

5.80

SoT conceded pressure

7.40

2.80

Home splitL-L-D-W-L0.80 scored / 1.20 conceded

Away splitW-L-D-D-W1.40 scored / 0.80 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 2.04. The V4 confidence band is LOW with an expected ROI of 1.21% based on n=228 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Finland Veikkausliiga (fi). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with Low volatility.

Pick2

Odd2.04

V2 BandLOWROI 1.21% · n=228

V4 BandLOWROI 1.21% · n=228

Odds TrendRising

VolatilityLow

AI Match Insight

This looks like a competitive matchup, although the form profile gives the selected side some support. If considered, this pick should be approached with caution due to the limited historical confidence. IF Gnistan is also generating more shots on target, adding offensive support to the pick.

Current Combo momentum is weak. Recent short-term performance has been below expectations, suggesting that current match conditions may be less favorable for the model.

3D: -20.0% 7D: -6.5% 15D: -8.2% 30D: 10.5%

Model insight

IFK Mariehamn – IF Gnistan Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 2.04. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSA model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show LOW confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 1.21% and 1.21%. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Market movement remained relatively stable before kickoff, suggesting balanced sentiment around the initial model projection. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample101

Win Rate51.5%

Profit+7.89u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
LOSS	FK Macva Sabac - IMT Novi Belgrade	2.06	1.76%
LOSS	Barcelona Guayaquil (W) - LDU Quito (W)	2.13	1.21%
WIN	Viimsi JK (W) - Paide Linnanaiskond (W)	2.10	1.21%
LOSS	Brighton (W) - PSG (W)	2.25	0.84%
WIN	TSV Havelse - VfB Stuttgart II	2.07	1.21%
WIN	Korona Kielce II - Wisla Krakow II	2.25	0.84%
LOSS	Larne FC - FC Iberia 1999	2.23	1.76%
LOSS	Wexford FC - Bray Wanderers	2.28	0.84%

Pick

2 @ 2.04

Kickoff

Giu 13, 2026 8:00 PM

Confidence

CONF: LOW

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 1.21% • n=228

Confidence V4

CONF V4: LOW

Exp. ROI V4

1.21% • n=228

Start

Started 58d 19h ago

Updated

Updated 59d 4h ago