Model: TIPPSA

Barcelona Guayaquil (W) vs LDU Quito (W)

PREDICTION

@ 2.57

StatusArchived prediction

KickoffAgo 10, 2026 12:00 AM

ResultLOSS1 - 1

StartStarted 16h 22m ago

V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 4.13% · n=261

V4 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 4.13% · n=261

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 18h 26m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is LDU Quito (W). This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: LDU Quito (W)Goal/Shots Index — H: 0.050 | A: 0.179

Shots Rating

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Away edge

Shots on Target

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Away edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

45/100

Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds1.83First seen

Current2.57Now

Max odds2.63Highest point

Min odds1.83Lowest point

VolatilityHighStable range

TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Barcelona Guayaquil (W)HOME

LDU Quito (W)AWAY

DWLWD

Recent form

DWWWW

Avg goals scored

1.40

3.00

Defensive weakness

0.80

0.40

Shots on target for

3.60

8.80

SoT conceded pressure

4.60

3.60

Home splitD-W-D-W-L1.60 scored / 0.80 conceded

Away splitD-W-W-W-D4.00 scored / 0.40 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 2.57. The V4 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 4.13% based on n=261 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Ecuador Primera Women (ec). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick2

Odd2.57

V2 BandMEDIUMROI 4.13% · n=261

V4 BandMEDIUMROI 4.13% · n=261

Odds TrendRising

VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

Despite entering the match at a generous price, LDU Quito (W) has produced enough positive indicators to justify attention. There is some statistical support behind the pick, but the historical signal is not strong enough to be aggressive. Shot-on-target data gives additional support to LDU Quito (W)'s attacking profile.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.

3D: 12.3% 7D: 9.4% 15D: 7.4% 30D: 9.7%

Model insight

Barcelona Guayaquil (W) – LDU Quito (W) Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 2.57. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSA model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show MEDIUM confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 4.13% and 4.13%. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample145

Win Rate42.8%

Profit+11.52u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
WIN	SV Ried - Rapid Vienna	2.40	4.13%
WIN	GBK - Huima/Urho	2.47	3.43%
LOSS	NWS Spirit FC - Blacktown City	2.57	4.13%
LOSS	Ansan Greeners FC - Gimhae FC 2008	2.38	3.43%
WIN	Hertha Wels - SV Austria Salzburg	2.76	4.96%
LOSS	New Mexico United - Colorado Switchbacks FC	2.36	4.13%
LOSS	AA Guarany - Atletico Gloriense	2.36	3.59%
LOSS	FC Gute - Kungsängens IF	2.80	3.61%

Active Similar Predictions

Match	Pick	Odd	Exp. ROI	Kickoff
Retro FC Brasil - America RN	2	2.70	3.31%	30 Apr 02:30

Pick

2 @ 2.57

Kickoff

Ago 10, 2026 12:00 AM

Confidence

CONF: MEDIUM

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 4.13% • n=261

Confidence V4

CONF V4: MEDIUM

Exp. ROI V4

4.13% • n=261

Start

Started 16h 22m ago

Updated

Updated 18h 26m ago