Montevideo Wanderers Reserves – Penarol Reserves

Model: TIPPSA

Montevideo Wanderers Reserves vs Penarol Reserves

PREDICTION
2
@ 2.63
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffGiu 22, 2026 10:00 PM
ResultLOSS1 - 1
StartStarted 2h 29m ago
V2 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 0.84% · n=717
V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 5h 9m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Penarol Reserves. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Penarol Reserves

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Away edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Away edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

34/100
Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds3.55First seen
Current2.75Now
Max odds3.55Highest point
Min odds2.75Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendDroppingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Montevideo Wanderers ReservesHOME
VS
Penarol ReservesAWAY
DWWLW
Recent form
DWWWW
Avg goals scored
2.00
1.60
Defensive weakness
1.00
0.40
Shots on target for
4.20
4.80
SoT conceded pressure
5.20
2.20
Home splitD-W-W-W-W2.60 scored / 0.80 conceded
Away splitD-W-L-W1.50 scored / 1.00 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 2.63. The V2 confidence band is LOW with an expected ROI of 0.84% based on n=717 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Uruguay Reserve League (uy). Odds movement is currently classified as Dropping with High volatility.

Pick2
Odd2.63
V2 BandLOWROI 0.84% · n=717
V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0
Odds TrendDropping
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

While the odds remain elevated, the underlying metrics suggest the selection may be more competitive than the market implies. The model does not assign a strong confidence profile here, making the pick more speculative.

Current Combo momentum is mixed. Recent results show alternating performance between short-term and medium-term windows.
3D: -60.0% 7D: -0.9% 15D: 0.0% 30D: 0.8%
Model insight

Montevideo Wanderers Reserves – Penarol Reserves Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 2.63. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSA model profile. The V2 confidence band is LOW, with a historical expected ROI of 0.84% across 717 similar predictions. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The prediction received strong market support after the first appearance. Early prices historically produced the best long-term performance for this model profile. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample33
Win Rate42.4%
Profit+2.49u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
WINKhangarid Klub - Deren FC2.630.84%
WINTulsa - Colorado Switchbacks FC2.670.84%
WINLyn 1896 - Bryne2.530.84%
LOSSDerry City - Bohemians Dublin2.450.84%
WINZED FC - Wadi Degla2.540.84%
LOSSUniao Rondonopolis - Mixto2.380.84%
LOSSTPS - VPS Vaasa2.480.84%
LOSSCerezo Osaka - FC Tokyo2.460.84%
Pick
2 @ 2.63
Kickoff
Giu 22, 2026 10:00 PM
Confidence
CONF: LOW
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 0.84% • n=717
Start
Started 2h 29m ago
Updated
Updated 5h 9m ago
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