South Melbourne (W) – Box Hill (W)

Model: TIPPSH

South Melbourne (W) vs Box Hill (W)

PREDICTION
1
@ 2.09
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffGiu 27, 2026 9:30 AM
ResultLOSS2 - 2
StartStarted 44d 22h ago
V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 3.37% · n=795
V4 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 3.37% · n=795
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 45d ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is South Melbourne (W). This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: South Melbourne (W)Goal/Shots Index — H: — | A: —

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

38/100
Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds1.86First seen
Current2.09Now
Max odds2.09Highest point
Min odds1.86Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

South Melbourne (W)HOME
VS
Box Hill (W)AWAY
DDWWW
Recent form
DWWWL
Avg goals scored
2.00
2.40
Defensive weakness
0.80
2.20
Shots on target for
7.60
5.60
SoT conceded pressure
3.40
5.80
Home splitD-D-W-W-W2.00 scored / 0.80 conceded
Away splitD-W-W-L-L1.80 scored / 2.20 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 2.09. The V4 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 3.37% based on n=795 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Australia NPL Victoria Women (au). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick1
Odd2.09
V2 BandMEDIUMROI 3.37% · n=795
V4 BandMEDIUMROI 3.37% · n=795
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

The matchup looks relatively balanced, so the value of the pick depends more on the model profile than on a clear form advantage. The model gives this selection a reasonable profile, although the confidence level remains measured. South Melbourne (W) has produced stronger recent offensive pressure in terms of shots on target.

Current Combo momentum is mixed. Recent results show alternating performance between short-term and medium-term windows.
3D: 2.0% 7D: 1.0% 15D: -2.7% 30D: -1.9%
Model insight

South Melbourne (W) – Box Hill (W) Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 2.09. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show MEDIUM confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 3.37% and 3.37%. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample347
Win Rate48.4%
Profit-5.32u
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WINWisloka Debica - JKS Jaroslaw2.343.15%
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LOSSOFK Banik Lehota - OFK Malzenice2.252.49%
LOSSRennes - Brentford2.063.37%
WINPorthmadog - Rhyl2.103.37%
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Pick
1 @ 2.09
Kickoff
Giu 27, 2026 9:30 AM
Confidence
CONF: MEDIUM
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 3.37% • n=795
Confidence V4
Exp. ROI V4
3.37% • n=795
Start
Started 44d 22h ago
Updated
Updated 45d ago
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