South Melbourne – Green Gully

Model: TIPPSH

South Melbourne vs Green Gully

PREDICTION
1
@ 1.75
StatusUpcoming
KickoffGiu 28, 2026 9:30 AM
ResultPending
StartStarts in 2d 15h
V2 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.04% · n=5438
V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 6h 45m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is South Melbourne. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: South Melbourne

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

25/100
Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds1.51First seen
Current1.75Now
Max odds1.75Highest point
Min odds1.51Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

South MelbourneHOME
VS
Green GullyAWAY
WLDLL
Recent form
LLDLL
Avg goals scored
1.80
0.60
Defensive weakness
2.20
1.80
Shots on target for
4.60
4.60
SoT conceded pressure
5.40
5.00
Home splitL-L-L-W-L1.40 scored / 2.60 conceded
Away splitL-D-L-L-D0.80 scored / 1.40 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 1.75. The V2 confidence band is LOW with an expected ROI of 1.04% based on n=5438 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Australia NPL Victoria (au). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick1
Odd1.75
V2 BandLOWROI 1.04% · n=5438
V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

The low odds suggest strong market confidence, and the available form indicators generally support that view. This selection carries a lower-confidence signal, so the risk profile remains elevated.

Current Combo momentum is weak. Recent short-term performance has been below expectations, suggesting that current match conditions may be less favorable for the model.
3D: -29.5% 7D: -28.9% 15D: -12.5% 30D: -2.5%
Model insight

South Melbourne – Green Gully Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 1.75. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. The V2 confidence band is LOW, with a historical expected ROI of 1.04% across 5438 similar predictions. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample162
Win Rate44.4%
Profit-27.41u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
LOSSCorpus Christi FC - Antelope Valley Alta1.951.04%
LOSSChangchun Dazhong (W) - Shandong (W)1.851.04%
WINCA Talleres de Cordoba (W) - Huracan (W)1.901.04%
LOSSGuarani de Palhoca - Nacao2.001.31%
WINMaitland FC - Newcastle Olympic FC1.841.31%
WINIFK Goteborg (W) - Trelleborgs FF (W)1.771.04%
WINBK Forward - Fittja IF1.821.04%
WINSerra Branca EC - Juazeirense1.891.31%
Active Similar Predictions
MatchPickOddExp. ROIKickoff
Velez Sarsfield Reserves - Newell's Reserves11.761.04%28 Jun 16:00
Athletic Club MG - Avai11.951.31%28 Jun 21:00
Pick
1 @ 1.75
Kickoff
Giu 28, 2026 9:30 AM
Confidence
CONF: LOW
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 1.04% • n=5438
Start
Starts in 2d 15h
Updated
Updated 6h 45m ago
Torna in alto