Model: TipA1

Marcilio Dias vs Portuguesa Desportos

PREDICTION

@ 2.45

StatusUpcoming

KickoffLug 05, 2026 1:00 AM

ResultPending

StartStarts in 11h 54m

V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 4.27% · n=1151

V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 12h 55m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Portuguesa Desportos. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Portuguesa Desportos

Shots Rating

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Away edge

Shots on Target

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Away edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

45/100

Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Marcilio DiasHOME

Portuguesa DesportosAWAY

WDDLD

Recent form

WDWWW

Avg goals scored

1.00

2.00

Defensive weakness

1.00

0.60

Shots on target for

2.80

7.00

SoT conceded pressure

3.40

2.00

Home splitW-L-W-L-W1.60 scored / 1.00 conceded

Away splitD-W-L-W-D1.00 scored / 0.80 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 2.45. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 4.27% based on n=1151 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Brazil Serie D (br). Odds movement is currently classified as Stable with Low volatility.

Pick2

Odd2.45

V2 BandMEDIUMROI 4.27% · n=1151

V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0

Odds TrendStable

VolatilityLow

AI Match Insight

Despite entering the match at a generous price, Portuguesa Desportos has produced enough positive indicators to justify attention. The confidence profile is moderate, so the pick has statistical support but should not be treated as a low-risk prediction. Portuguesa Desportos is also generating more shots on target, adding offensive support to the pick.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.

3D: 81.9% 7D: 90.3% 15D: 32.0% 30D: 11.6%

Model insight

Marcilio Dias – Portuguesa Desportos Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 2.45. This prediction is generated by the TipA1 model profile. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM, with a historical expected ROI of 4.27% across 1151 similar predictions. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. Odds history is still limited because this prediction has only recently appeared in the monitored bookmaker panel. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample181

Win Rate40.9%

Profit-1.30u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
WIN	Hurstville FC - Canterbury Bankstown FC	2.20	3.75%
LOSS	SC Kalsdorf - FC Marchfeld Donauauen	2.60	4.27%
WIN	Gold Coast Knights U23 - Moreton City Excelsior U23	2.50	4.27%
LOSS	Modbury Vista Reserves (W) - Salisbury Inter Reserves (W)	2.50	4.27%
WIN	PPJ - Kiffen	2.50	4.27%
WIN	HFX Wanderers - Atletico Ottawa	2.55	4.27%
WIN	Universidad de Concepcion - Nublense	2.50	4.27%
LOSS	Cerrado U20 - Atletico Goianiense U20	2.55	4.27%

Active Similar Predictions

Match	Pick	Odd	Exp. ROI	Kickoff
HPS - Reipas	2	2.50	4.27%	04 Jul 16:00
Argentino Quilmes - Talleres Remedios	2	2.50	4.27%	05 Jul 18:00
Odd BK - Haugesund	2	2.70	4.27%	05 Jul 19:15
Defensores Unidos - Argentino Merlo	2	2.38	4.27%	05 Jul 20:00

Pick

2 @ 2.45

Kickoff

Lug 05, 2026 1:00 AM

Confidence

CONF: MEDIUM

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 4.27% • n=1151

Start

Starts in 11h 54m

Updated

Updated 12h 55m ago