Merthyr Town – Yeovil

Model: TIPPSH

Merthyr Town vs Yeovil

PREDICTION
1
@ 2.87
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffLug 14, 2026 10:30 PM
ResultLOSS2 - 2
StartStarted 6h 40m ago
V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 4.53% · n=669
V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 10h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Merthyr Town. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Merthyr Town

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

50/100
Good value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds3.25First seen
Current3.04Now
Max odds3.56Highest point
Min odds3.04Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendDroppingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Merthyr TownHOME
VS
YeovilAWAY
DWLLW
Recent form
DWLLD
Avg goals scored
2.40
1.40
Defensive weakness
2.20
2.00
Shots on target for
6.00
3.20
SoT conceded pressure
4.80
5.60
Home splitD-W-L-L-D2.00 scored / 2.20 conceded
Away splitD-W-L-L1.75 scored / 2.00 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 2.87. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 4.53% based on n=669 historical similar picks. The match belongs to UK Friendlies (gb). Odds movement is currently classified as Dropping with High volatility.

Pick1
Odd2.87
V2 BandMEDIUMROI 4.53% · n=669
V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0
Odds TrendDropping
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

The market offers a relatively high price, but recent statistical trends still provide meaningful support for Merthyr Town. The confidence profile is moderate, so the pick has statistical support but should not be treated as a low-risk prediction. Merthyr Town is also generating more shots on target, adding offensive support to the pick.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.
3D: -6.8% 7D: 8.9% 15D: 24.2% 30D: 16.8%
Model insight

Merthyr Town – Yeovil Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 2.87. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM, with a historical expected ROI of 4.53% across 669 similar predictions. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The prediction received strong market support after the first appearance. Early prices historically produced the best long-term performance for this model profile. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample23
Win Rate39.1%
Profit+2.42u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
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LOSSLas Vegas Lights FC - El Paso Locomotive FC2.844.53%
LOSSVikingur Gota - NSI Runavik2.762.04%
WINDelaware FC - Real Central NJ2.804.53%
LOSSFC Struga Trim & Lum - FC Dinamo City2.994.53%
LOSSEastern Suburbs Auckland - Birkenhead United2.794.53%
LOSSRenaissance Zemamra - OC Safi2.854.53%
Active Similar Predictions
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Pick
1 @ 2.87
Kickoff
Lug 14, 2026 10:30 PM
Confidence
CONF: MEDIUM
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 4.53% • n=669
Start
Started 6h 40m ago
Updated
Updated 10h ago
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