Montpellier – Le Puy

Model: TIPPSH

Montpellier vs Le Puy

PREDICTION
1
@ 1.68
StatusUpcoming
KickoffLug 17, 2026 7:00 PM
ResultPending
StartStarts in 7h 19m
V2 ConfidenceNONEExpected ROI -9.21% · n=1970
V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 6h 24m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Montpellier. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Montpellier

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

3/100
Poor value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds1.50First seen
Current1.68Now
Max odds1.68Highest point
Min odds1.50Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

MontpellierHOME
VS
Le PuyAWAY
WDLWW
Recent form
DWDLL
Avg goals scored
1.80
1.00
Defensive weakness
1.20
1.80
Shots on target for
5.60
3.40
SoT conceded pressure
3.20
6.00
Home splitW-L-W-D2.00 scored / 1.75 conceded
Away splitD-W-D-L-D0.80 scored / 1.40 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 1.68. The V2 confidence band is NONE with an expected ROI of -9.21% based on n=1970 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Europe Friendlies. Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick1
Odd1.68
V2 BandNONEROI -9.21% · n=1970
V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

The market strongly favors Montpellier, and recent form broadly confirms the direction of the price. The model does not assign a strong confidence profile here, making the pick more speculative. Shot-on-target data gives additional support to Montpellier's attacking profile.

Current Combo momentum is positive. Recent Combo selections remain profitable across multiple recent windows, indicating stable short-term performance.
3D: 64.0% 7D: 2.6% 15D: 8.0% 30D: 19.1%
Model insight

Montpellier – Le Puy Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 1.68. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. The V2 confidence band is NONE, with a historical expected ROI of -9.21% across 1970 similar predictions. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample207
Win Rate58.9%
Profit-2.11u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
WINAarhus Fremad - Brabrand1.66-7.35%
LOSSDaegu FC - Siheung City AC1.68-9.21%
WINSporting - Celtic1.74-9.21%
WINChattanooga Red Wolves - Antelope Valley Alta1.65-6.04%
WINViettel U21 - Hoang Anh Gia Lai U211.74-9.21%
LOSSKuPS Kuopio - Vardar Skopje1.63-9.21%
WINQuilmes Reserves - Central Cordoba SdE Reserves1.72-7.35%
WINPaide Linnameeskond - Hegelmann Litauen1.73-9.21%
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Pick
1 @ 1.68
Kickoff
Lug 17, 2026 7:00 PM
Confidence
CONF: NONE
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI -9.21% • n=1970
Start
Starts in 7h 19m
Updated
Updated 6h 24m ago
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