Model: TIPPSH

St Pauli vs HNK Gorica

PREDICTION

@ 2.01

StatusArchived prediction

KickoffLug 19, 2026 6:00 PM

ResultWIN2 - 1

StartStarted 1d 10h ago

V2 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.04% · n=5438

V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 2d ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is St Pauli. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: St PauliGoal/Shots Index — H: — | A: —

Shots Rating

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

28/100

Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds1.67First seen

Current1.69Now

Max odds1.69Highest point

Min odds1.67Lowest point

VolatilityLowStable range

TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

St PauliHOME

HNK GoricaAWAY

WWWWL

Recent form

LWLWW

Avg goals scored

3.20

1.80

Defensive weakness

1.60

1.20

Shots on target for

8.60

3.20

SoT conceded pressure

5.60

4.20

Home splitW-L-L-D-L1.00 scored / 2.40 conceded

Away splitL-W-L-L-W1.60 scored / 1.40 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 2.01. The V2 confidence band is LOW with an expected ROI of 1.04% based on n=5438 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Europe Friendlies. Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with Low volatility.

Pick1

Odd2.01

V2 BandLOWROI 1.04% · n=5438

V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0

Odds TrendRising

VolatilityLow

AI Match Insight

The price is not extreme, and recent results provide a reasonable statistical basis for the pick. The model does not assign a strong confidence profile here, making the pick more speculative. Shot-on-target data gives additional support to St Pauli's attacking profile.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.

3D: 34.9% 7D: 25.9% 15D: 17.3% 30D: 21.4%

Model insight

St Pauli – HNK Gorica Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 2.01. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. The V2 confidence band is LOW, with a historical expected ROI of 1.04% across 5438 similar predictions. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Market movement remained relatively stable before kickoff, suggesting balanced sentiment around the initial model projection. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample395

Win Rate48.4%

Profit-15.26u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
LOSS	Penarol Reserves - Racing Club de Montevideo Reserves	2.13	1.04%
LOSS	Al Ansar Beirut - Al Nejmeh	2.17	1.04%
WIN	Flint City Bucks - Steel City	1.81	1.04%
LOSS	Arsenal Tula - Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk	1.79	1.04%
WIN	Sao Joao del Rei U20 - Inter De Minas U20	2.24	1.04%
WIN	South East United FC - Launceston United	1.95	1.04%
LOSS	Changchun Dazhong (W) - Sichuan Jiannanchun Women	2.13	1.04%
LOSS	Shaanxi Zhidan (W) - Zhejiang Hangzhou (W)	2.00	1.04%

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Pick

1 @ 2.01

Kickoff

Lug 19, 2026 6:00 PM

Confidence

CONF: LOW

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 1.04% • n=5438

Start

Started 1d 10h ago

Updated

Updated 2d ago