Model: TIPPSH
Athletic Club MG vs Sao Bernardo SP
PREDICTION
1
@ 2.19
StatusUpcoming
KickoffLug 24, 2026 2:30 AM
ResultPending
StartStarts in 4d 10h
V2 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.04% · n=5438
V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 5h 53m ago
📊 Match Analysis
Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.
Game Context
The model side is Athletic Club MG. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.
Edge: Athletic Club MGGoal/Shots Index — H: -0.008 | A: -0.028Value Index
Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.
31/100
Odds Movement
Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds2.14First seen
Current2.19Now
Max odds2.19Highest point
Min odds2.14Lowest point
VolatilityLowStable range
TrendRisingShort term
📊 Team Form (Last 5)
Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.
Athletic Club MGHOME
VS
Sao Bernardo SPAWAY
DDLWL
Recent form
DDLLL
Avg goals scored
0.20
0.80
Defensive weakness
0.60
1.40
Shots on target for
2.80
3.80
SoT conceded pressure
2.60
3.40
Home splitL-W-D-W-D0.80 scored / 0.60 conceded
Away splitL-L-W-W-W1.60 scored / 1.20 conceded
Quick Analysis
The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 2.19. The V2 confidence band is LOW with an expected ROI of 1.04% based on n=5438 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Brazil Serie B (br). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with Low volatility.
Pick1
Odd2.19
V2 BandLOWROI 1.04% · n=5438
V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityLow
AI Match Insight
The price is not extreme, and recent results provide a reasonable statistical basis for the pick. The model does not assign a strong confidence profile here, making the pick more speculative.
Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.
3D: 32.3%
7D: 19.4%
15D: 11.6%
30D: 19.5%
Model insight
Athletic Club MG – Sao Bernardo SP Betting Analysis
The model currently selects 1 at odds 2.19. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. The V2 confidence band is LOW, with a historical expected ROI of 1.04% across 5438 similar predictions. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Market movement remained relatively stable before kickoff, suggesting balanced sentiment around the initial model projection. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample288
Win Rate47.2%
Profit+1.77u
Historical Similar Predictions
| Result | Match | Odd | Exp. ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| WIN | South East United FC - Launceston United | 1.95 | 1.04% |
| LOSS | Changchun Dazhong (W) - Sichuan Jiannanchun Women | 2.13 | 1.04% |
| LOSS | Shaanxi Zhidan (W) - Zhejiang Hangzhou (W) | 2.00 | 1.04% |
| WIN | Marconi Stallions U20 - Sydney United 58 U20 | 2.23 | 1.31% |
| LOSS | Kaisar Kyzylorda - FK Kaspyi Aktau | 1.96 | 1.31% |
| WIN | HNK Segesta - Karlovac | 2.40 | 1.59% |
| LOSS | FC Ajka - Csakvari TK | 2.40 | 1.59% |
| WIN | Servette - St Etienne | 2.11 | 1.04% |
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| FK Zalgiris Vilnius - FK Transinvest | 1 | 2.06 | 1.04% | 19 Jul 18:00 |
| Buzios - Barra Mansa | 1 | 2.35 | 1.59% | 19 Jul 19:00 |
| San Martin SJ - Tristan Suarez | 1 | 2.12 | 1.04% | 20 Jul 20:00 |
Pick
1 @ 2.19
Kickoff
Lug 24, 2026 2:30 AM
Confidence
CONF: LOW
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 1.04% • n=5438
Start
Starts in 4d 10h
Updated
Updated 5h 53m ago