Chertsey Town – Wealdstone

Model: TipTromba45H

Chertsey Town vs Wealdstone

PREDICTION
1
@ 4.00
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffLug 21, 2026 10:30 PM
ResultWIN2 - 0
StartStarted 21h 59m ago
V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 4.86% · n=258
V4 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 4.86% · n=258
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 2d 4h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Chertsey Town. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Chertsey TownGoal/Shots Index — H: — | A: 0.043

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Balanced

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

59/100
Good value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds4.00First seen
Current4.24Now
Max odds4.24Highest point
Min odds4.00Lowest point
VolatilityMediumStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Chertsey TownHOME
VS
WealdstoneAWAY
WWLLW
Recent form
LWLDL
Avg goals scored
1.20
0.80
Defensive weakness
1.40
1.60
Shots on target for
3.50
3.60
SoT conceded pressure
5.00
3.80
Home splitW-W-L-D1.25 scored / 0.75 conceded
Away splitL-D-L-L-L0.60 scored / 2.20 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 4.00. The V4 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 4.86% based on n=258 historical similar picks. The match belongs to UK Friendlies (gb). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with Medium volatility.

Pick1
Odd4.00
V2 BandMEDIUMROI 4.86% · n=258
V4 BandMEDIUMROI 4.86% · n=258
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityMedium

AI Match Insight

While the odds remain elevated, the underlying metrics suggest the selection may be more competitive than the market implies. The confidence profile is moderate, so the pick has statistical support but should not be treated as a low-risk prediction.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.
3D: 52.4% 7D: 25.5% 15D: 18.6% 30D: 21.4%
Model insight

Chertsey Town – Wealdstone Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 4.00. This prediction is generated by the TipTromba45H model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show MEDIUM confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 4.86% and 4.86%. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. Moderate odds volatility indicates some market disagreement during the pre-match phase. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample29
Win Rate20.7%
Profit-4.80u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
LOSSRadcliffe FC - Barrow4.004.86%
LOSSAFC Telford - Crewe4.204.86%
WINSTK Samorin - Al Gharafa4.004.86%
WINNIFS Kanoya FC - MHI Nagasaki4.004.86%
LOSSZulte-Waregem - AZ4.004.86%
LOSSBristol Rovers - Portsmouth4.102.97%
LOSSJyTy - IFK Mariehamn II4.104.86%
LOSSCD Espuce (W) - Macara (W)4.004.86%
Active Similar Predictions
MatchPickOddExp. ROIKickoff
JyTy - MaPS14.102.97%23 Jul 17:15
Pick
1 @ 4.00
Kickoff
Lug 21, 2026 10:30 PM
Confidence
CONF: MEDIUM
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 4.86% • n=258
Confidence V4
Exp. ROI V4
4.86% • n=258
Start
Started 21h 59m ago
Updated
Updated 2d 4h ago
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