Model: TipA1

Karlovac vs NK Krka

PREDICTION

@ 2.90

StatusArchived prediction

KickoffLug 25, 2026 12:00 PM

ResultLOSS2 - 1

StartStarted 2h 24m ago

V2 ConfidenceHIGHExpected ROI 5.52% · n=654

V4 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 4.82% · n=246

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 13h 58m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is NK Krka. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: NK KrkaGoal/Shots Index — H: -0.133 | A: 0.010

Shots Rating

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Away edge

Shots on Target

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Away edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

51/100

Good value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds2.90First seen

Current2.95Now

Max odds3.05Highest point

Min odds2.90Lowest point

VolatilityMediumStable range

TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

KarlovacHOME

NK KrkaAWAY

WLLDW

Recent form

LLWWL

Avg goals scored

1.20

2.20

Defensive weakness

1.40

2.20

Shots on target for

1.60

5.20

SoT conceded pressure

5.00

5.40

Home splitW-L-D-W-W1.60 scored / 0.80 conceded

Away splitL-L-W-L-W2.60 scored / 2.00 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 2.90. The V4 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 4.82% based on n=246 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Europe Friendlies. Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with Medium volatility.

Pick2

Odd2.90

V2 BandHIGHROI 5.52% · n=654

V4 BandMEDIUMROI 4.82% · n=246

Odds TrendRising

VolatilityMedium

AI Match Insight

From a statistical perspective, the difference between the two teams may be smaller than the current price indicates. The HIGH confidence band is important here: similar higher-priced setups have historically produced positive model results. Shot-on-target data gives additional support to NK Krka's attacking profile.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.

3D: 20.9% 7D: 32.0% 15D: 20.6% 30D: 25.7%

Model insight

Karlovac – NK Krka Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 2.90. This prediction is generated by the TipA1 model profile. The V2 confidence band is HIGH, with a historical expected ROI of 5.52% across 654 similar predictions. The V4 confidence band is MEDIUM, with a historical expected ROI of 4.82% across 246 historical samples. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Market movement remained relatively stable before kickoff, suggesting balanced sentiment around the initial model projection. Moderate odds volatility indicates some market disagreement during the pre-match phase. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample120

Win Rate34.2%

Profit-1.16u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
LOSS	River Plate Asuncion - Club General Martin Ledesma	3.00	5.52%
LOSS	SV Lafnitz - USV Scheiblingkirchen-Warth	2.90	5.52%
WIN	FC Groningen - FC Volendam	3.00	5.52%
LOSS	Argentino de Rosario - Puerto Nuevo	3.00	5.52%
WIN	Adelaide United NPL - Sturt Lions	3.10	5.52%
LOSS	Viettel U21 - PVF-CAND U21	3.00	5.52%
LOSS	Orense - SD Aucas	2.80	5.52%
LOSS	Universitatea Cluj - SK Brann	2.70	6.36%

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Pick

2 @ 2.90

Kickoff

Lug 25, 2026 12:00 PM

Confidence

CONF: HIGH

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 5.52% • n=654

Confidence V4

CONF V4: MEDIUM

Exp. ROI V4

4.82% • n=246

Start

Started 2h 24m ago

Updated

Updated 13h 58m ago