Valeriodoce EC – Villa Nova

Model: TIPPSH

Valeriodoce EC vs Villa Nova

PREDICTION
1
@ 2.18
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffLug 26, 2026 10:00 PM
ResultLOSS0 - 1
StartStarted 4h 18m ago
V2 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.31% · n=2537
V4 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.31% · n=2537
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 6h 22m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Valeriodoce EC. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Valeriodoce ECGoal/Shots Index — H: 0.030 | A: -0.016

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

31/100
Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds1.90First seen
Current2.18Now
Max odds2.20Highest point
Min odds1.90Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Valeriodoce ECHOME
VS
Villa NovaAWAY
LDWDW
Recent form
WDLDL
Avg goals scored
0.60
0.80
Defensive weakness
0.40
1.00
Shots on target for
5.00
3.20
SoT conceded pressure
4.00
4.80
Home splitL-W-W-D-D0.60 scored / 0.40 conceded
Away splitW-L-L-L-W0.60 scored / 0.80 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 2.18. The V4 confidence band is LOW with an expected ROI of 1.31% based on n=2537 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Brazil Campeonato Mineiro 2 (br). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick1
Odd2.18
V2 BandLOWROI 1.31% · n=2537
V4 BandLOWROI 1.31% · n=2537
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

In a fairly competitive price range, recent form gives Valeriodoce EC a useful statistical edge. Confidence remains limited, so this should be read as a cautious lean rather than a strong prediction. Valeriodoce EC has produced stronger recent offensive pressure in terms of shots on target.

Current Combo momentum is positive. Recent Combo selections remain profitable across multiple recent windows, indicating stable short-term performance.
3D: -11.8% 7D: 2.4% 15D: 9.9% 30D: 19.0%
Model insight

Valeriodoce EC – Villa Nova Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 2.18. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show LOW confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 1.31% and 1.31%. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
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Pick
1 @ 2.18
Kickoff
Lug 26, 2026 10:00 PM
Confidence
CONF: LOW
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 1.31% • n=2537
Confidence V4
Exp. ROI V4
1.31% • n=2537
Start
Started 4h 18m ago
Updated
Updated 6h 22m ago
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