Model: TIPPSH

Girona vs CD Castellon

PREDICTION

@ 2.17

StatusArchived prediction

KickoffLug 29, 2026 8:30 PM

ResultLOSS3 - 3

StartStarted 2h 41m ago

V2 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.04% · n=5438

V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 4h 43m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Girona. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: GironaGoal/Shots Index — H: -0.065 | A: -0.019

Shots Rating

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

30/100

Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds2.10First seen

Current2.17Now

Max odds2.30Highest point

Min odds2.10Lowest point

VolatilityHighStable range

TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

GironaHOME

CD CastellonAWAY

DLWDL

Recent form

DWLDW

Avg goals scored

1.40

2.00

Defensive weakness

1.40

1.80

Shots on target for

8.40

6.00

SoT conceded pressure

4.60

3.20

Home splitD-L-D-D-L1.00 scored / 1.40 conceded

Away splitD-W-L-W-D1.80 scored / 1.60 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 2.17. The V2 confidence band is LOW with an expected ROI of 1.04% based on n=5438 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Europe Friendlies. Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick1

Odd2.17

V2 BandLOWROI 1.04% · n=5438

V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0

Odds TrendRising

VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

The matchup looks relatively balanced, so the value of the pick depends more on the model profile than on a clear form advantage. The model does not assign a strong confidence profile here, making the pick more speculative. Shot-on-target data gives additional support to Girona's attacking profile.

Current Combo momentum is mixed. Recent results show alternating performance between short-term and medium-term windows.

3D: -9.0% 7D: -10.0% 15D: 7.9% 30D: 13.9%

Model insight

Girona – CD Castellon Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 2.17. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. The V2 confidence band is LOW, with a historical expected ROI of 1.04% across 5438 similar predictions. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Market movement remained relatively stable before kickoff, suggesting balanced sentiment around the initial model projection. Moderate odds volatility indicates some market disagreement during the pre-match phase. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample358

Win Rate45.8%

Profit-9.99u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
LOSS	JPS - FCJ Blackbird	1.93	1.04%
LOSS	AEK Athens - Samsunspor	1.99	1.04%
LOSS	Asane Fotball U19 - Sandefjord U19	2.09	1.04%
LOSS	CA Tigre - Nacional De Football	2.08	1.04%
WIN	Fuerte San Francisco Reserves - CD Platense Zacatecoluca Reserves	2.01	1.31%
LOSS	CD Aguila Reserves - CD Luis Angel Firpo Reserves	1.99	1.04%
WIN	Eintracht Frankfurt - Trabzonspor	2.00	1.04%
WIN	Kamuzu Barracks - MAFCO	2.15	1.04%

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Pick

1 @ 2.17

Kickoff

Lug 29, 2026 8:30 PM

Confidence

CONF: LOW

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 1.04% • n=5438

Start

Started 2h 41m ago

Updated

Updated 4h 43m ago