AEK Athens – Samsunspor

Model: TIPPSH

AEK Athens vs Samsunspor

PREDICTION
1
@ 2.05
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffLug 29, 2026 8:00 PM
ResultLOSS1 - 2
StartStarted 1d 4h ago
V2 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.04% · n=5438
V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 1d 6h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is AEK Athens. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: AEK AthensGoal/Shots Index — H: 0.038 | A: 0.023

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

29/100
Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds1.80First seen
Current2.05Now
Max odds2.05Highest point
Min odds1.79Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

AEK AthensHOME
VS
SamsunsporAWAY
LWWDW
Recent form
WDLWL
Avg goals scored
1.60
1.20
Defensive weakness
1.20
1.20
Shots on target for
3.80
4.00
SoT conceded pressure
3.60
3.00
Home splitL-D-W-W-W2.00 scored / 1.00 conceded
Away splitW-D-L-L-W1.20 scored / 1.60 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 2.05. The V2 confidence band is LOW with an expected ROI of 1.04% based on n=5438 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Europe Friendlies. Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick1
Odd2.05
V2 BandLOWROI 1.04% · n=5438
V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

This looks like a competitive matchup, although the form profile gives the selected side some support. If considered, this pick should be approached with caution due to the limited historical confidence.

Current Combo momentum is mixed. Recent results show alternating performance between short-term and medium-term windows.
3D: -20.6% 7D: -13.0% 15D: 7.5% 30D: 13.5%
Model insight

AEK Athens – Samsunspor Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 2.05. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. The V2 confidence band is LOW, with a historical expected ROI of 1.04% across 5438 similar predictions. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample440
Win Rate46.6%
Profit-25.17u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
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WINSabah FC U20 - Negeri Sembilan U201.811.04%
LOSSJPS - FCJ Blackbird1.931.04%
LOSSGirona - CD Castellon2.181.04%
LOSSAsane Fotball U19 - Sandefjord U192.091.04%
WINForward Madison FC - Chattanooga Red Wolves2.101.04%
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Pick
1 @ 2.05
Kickoff
Lug 29, 2026 8:00 PM
Confidence
CONF: LOW
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 1.04% • n=5438
Start
Started 1d 4h ago
Updated
Updated 1d 6h ago
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