Barcelona Guayaquil (W) – LDU Quito (W)

Model: TIPPSA

Barcelona Guayaquil (W) vs LDU Quito (W)

PREDICTION
2
@ 2.57
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffAgo 10, 2026 12:00 AM
ResultLOSS1 - 1
StartStarted 17h 9m ago
V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 4.13% · n=261
V4 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 4.13% · n=261
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 19h 13m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is LDU Quito (W). This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: LDU Quito (W)Goal/Shots Index — H: 0.050 | A: 0.179

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Away edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Away edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

45/100
Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds1.83First seen
Current2.57Now
Max odds2.63Highest point
Min odds1.83Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Barcelona Guayaquil (W)HOME
VS
LDU Quito (W)AWAY
DWLWD
Recent form
DWWWW
Avg goals scored
1.40
3.00
Defensive weakness
0.80
0.40
Shots on target for
3.60
8.80
SoT conceded pressure
4.60
3.60
Home splitD-W-D-W-L1.60 scored / 0.80 conceded
Away splitD-W-W-W-D4.00 scored / 0.40 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 2.57. The V4 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 4.13% based on n=261 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Ecuador Primera Women (ec). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick2
Odd2.57
V2 BandMEDIUMROI 4.13% · n=261
V4 BandMEDIUMROI 4.13% · n=261
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

Despite entering the match at a generous price, LDU Quito (W) has produced enough positive indicators to justify attention. There is some statistical support behind the pick, but the historical signal is not strong enough to be aggressive. Shot-on-target data gives additional support to LDU Quito (W)'s attacking profile.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.
3D: 12.3% 7D: 9.4% 15D: 7.4% 30D: 9.7%
Model insight

Barcelona Guayaquil (W) – LDU Quito (W) Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 2.57. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSA model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show MEDIUM confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 4.13% and 4.13%. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample145
Win Rate42.8%
Profit+11.52u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
WINSV Ried - Rapid Vienna2.404.13%
WINGBK - Huima/Urho2.473.43%
LOSSNWS Spirit FC - Blacktown City2.574.13%
LOSSAnsan Greeners FC - Gimhae FC 20082.383.43%
WINHertha Wels - SV Austria Salzburg2.764.96%
LOSSNew Mexico United - Colorado Switchbacks FC2.364.13%
LOSSAA Guarany - Atletico Gloriense2.363.59%
LOSSFC Gute - Kungsängens IF2.803.61%
Active Similar Predictions
MatchPickOddExp. ROIKickoff
Retro FC Brasil - America RN22.703.31%30 Apr 02:30
Pick
2 @ 2.57
Kickoff
Ago 10, 2026 12:00 AM
Confidence
CONF: MEDIUM
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 4.13% • n=261
Confidence V4
Exp. ROI V4
4.13% • n=261
Start
Started 17h 9m ago
Updated
Updated 19h 13m ago
Torna in alto