Model: TIPPSA

AA Guarany vs Atletico Gloriense

PREDICTION

@ 2.32

StatusArchived prediction

KickoffAgo 01, 2026 10:15 PM

ResultLOSS1 - 1

StartStarted 2h 29m ago

V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 3.59% · n=214

V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 4h 38m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Atletico Gloriense. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Atletico GlorienseGoal/Shots Index — H: -0.049 | A: -0.043

Shots Rating

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Away edge

Shots on Target

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Away edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

41/100

Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds2.82First seen

Current2.32Now

Max odds2.82Highest point

Min odds2.32Lowest point

VolatilityHighStable range

TrendDroppingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

AA GuaranyHOME

Atletico GlorienseAWAY

Recent form

Avg goals scored

0.50

Defensive weakness

2.00

0.50

Shots on target for

3.00

SoT conceded pressure

7.00

2.00

Home splitD1.00 scored / 1.00 conceded

Away splitD1.00 scored / 1.00 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 2.32. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 3.59% based on n=214 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Brazil Copa Sergipe (br). Odds movement is currently classified as Dropping with High volatility.

Pick2

Odd2.32

V2 BandMEDIUMROI 3.59% · n=214

V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0

Odds TrendDropping

VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

Recent form does not create a strong separation, making the confidence band especially important here. The model gives this selection a reasonable profile, although the confidence level remains measured.

Current Combo momentum is positive. Recent Combo selections remain profitable across multiple recent windows, indicating stable short-term performance.

3D: 46.4% 7D: 6.1% 15D: 12.8% 30D: 10.1%

Model insight

AA Guarany – Atletico Gloriense Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 2.32. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSA model profile. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM, with a historical expected ROI of 3.59% across 214 similar predictions. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The prediction received strong market support after the first appearance. Early prices historically produced the best long-term performance for this model profile. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample165

Win Rate41.2%

Profit-6.47u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
WIN	FC Cajamarca - Sport Huancayo	2.35	4.13%
LOSS	Gremio - Fluminense	2.54	3.43%
LOSS	Sol de Mayo - Club Villa Mitre	2.15	2.63%
LOSS	Sportivo Ameliano - Nacional Asuncion	2.47	3.59%
WIN	Cobh Ramblers - Bray Wanderers	2.27	3.43%
LOSS	Austin FC - Seattle Sounders	2.30	3.43%
WIN	IFK Varnamo - Ljungskile	2.54	3.59%
WIN	Shanghai Segenda - Shandong Taishan Reserves	2.13	2.63%

Active Similar Predictions

Match	Pick	Odd	Exp. ROI	Kickoff
New Mexico United - Colorado Switchbacks FC	2	2.36	4.13%	02 Aug 03:30

Pick

2 @ 2.32

Kickoff

Ago 01, 2026 10:15 PM

Confidence

CONF: MEDIUM

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 3.59% • n=214

Start

Started 2h 29m ago

Updated

Updated 4h 38m ago